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Feed Titel: Verfassungsblog


“The Unwillingness to Call This Illegal Is a Terrible Mistake”

The United States and Israel have launched a large-scale military attack against Iran, with unforeseeable consequences. Yet the war against Iran is only the latest example of a profound transformation of the postwar international legal order. Are we witnessing the end of the system governing the use of force? And should European governments speak out more clearly about violations of international law?

We spoke with Oona A. Hathaway, Professor of International Law at Yale Law School and one of the world’s leading scholars on the legal order governing war and the prohibition of the use of force. Hathaway is also President-Elect of the American Society of International Law.

1. Nearly a week ago, the United States and Israel began their war against Iran. The German government, along with several other European governments, has so far been reluctant to characterize the attack as a violation of international law. Is Europe well advised to place less emphasis on international law and instead adopt a more realpolitik stance?

The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran is clearly and unequivocally unlawful.  Under the United Nations Charter, a use of force by one state against another is lawful only if it is authorized by the UN Security Council or if it is a necessary and proportionate act of self defense.  Neither is true here.  Given that the use of force is so clearly unlawful, the unwillingness of European states to characterize the attack as a violation of international law is a terrible mistake. If there had been more of a response to Trump’s unlawful use of military force in Venezuela, perhaps he would not have launched another unlawful war against Iran. The failure to call the Trump Administration to account also highlights that international law is being treated as a constraint for some but not for all.  The result will be a further weakening of the already weak international legal order.

2. You have described the prohibition on the use of force as the bedrock of the postwar international legal order. Is that order now beginning to collapse?

We are perhaps too close to events to know with certainty. But it does seem that we are in the midst of a transformation in the international legal order. The prohibition on the use of force appears to have lost much of its power to constrain at least the most powerful states.  It is important to recognize, however, that much of the world outside Europe would say that things are not quite so simple.  They would point out that the powerful states have bent and broken the rules for decades. Look at the U.S. war in Iraq in 2003, the decades-long counter-terrorism operations by the U.S. and others throughout the Middle East, Russia’s use of force against not just Ukraine but Georgia and Moldova as well, and China’s occupation of contested rocks, reefs, and islands in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, most of the world continues to follow the prohibition on the use of force.  There are 193 states in the United Nations, and the vast majority have always complied with the prohibition on the use of force in the UN Charter, and they continue to do so today. So it is less clear that the past is as good—or the present as bad—as some might think.

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3. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth recently said that “no stupid rules of engagement” apply in the war against Iran, effectively rejecting the very idea of legal constraints. If we look back at history, even before the Kellogg-Briand Pact of 1928, there were legal norms intended to constrain war. Are we moving toward a world in which even the rules of war begin to disappear altogether?

What I believe the Secretary of Defense is referring to are the rules of engagement—or “ROEs”—that are internal rules developed by the military to govern the conduct of the U.S. armed forces in a military operation. I don’t know for certain what he means by “stupid” rules of engagement, but presumably he means rules that he thinks excessively constrain the armed forces.  When I worked at the U.S. Department of Defense in 2014-2015, I helped review some of the ROEs that were developed for operations then taking place.  In my experience, those who were the most committed to the law of armed conflict were those in uniform.  They believed in the value and importance of adhering to the law because they believed in the values that the law protects and because they knew that those same rules protect American soldiers at war, and American civilians at home and around the world.  I am dismayed that the U.S. Secretary of Defense seems to no longer believe in those principles, but I think his view is not shared by most of those who work in the Department he leads. And they are not shared by the rest of the world, where most people are committed to the principles that the law of armed conflict protects.

4. Let’s shift for a moment from the legal dimension to the political and strategic one. Some hope that the airstrikes against Iran could ultimately lead to regime change. Is that a realistic expectation?

I am not an expert on Iran, so I can’t claim any specific expertise. I read that, at the moment, Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has emerged as the likely choice to succeed his father.  If that happens, then there will be no real change.  What I think we have learned from history is that it is easy to destroy from the air, but it is impossible to build.  As long as the United States wants to operate entirely from the air, then, I think we will have little control over what happens in Iran. (I am not advocating for ground troops—that would be a mistake of epic proportions.)  The idea that has been recently floated of arming groups in the country is truly misguided, and it has the potential to spark a civil war that would make an already terrible situation far worse. We have discovered again and again—from Cuba to Iraq to Afghanistan to Libya to Syria— that this does not work. I hope that we do not need to learn that lesson yet again. The true tragedy is that the people who will pay the costs of these terrible decisions are not those who make them but the innocent people in Iran who will have to live with the consequences.

5. Looking ahead, is the “great unraveling” you have described still reversible? Or have we already passed a point of no return?

I wrote the article about the “great unraveling” of the postwar legal order for the New York Times after the Trump Administration’s unlawful intervention in Venezuela but before the current war in Iran.  If things were dangerous then, they are far worse now. They are worse not only because a dozen nations are now caught up in yet another ill-conceived and illegal war in the Middle East, but also because the response of the international community has been so weak.  I see few world leaders standing up for the rule of law in the face of blatant lawlessness. That is a great tragedy, and it is that failure that may ultimately spell the end of the postwar legal order.

*

Editor’s Pick

by MAXIM BÖNNEMANN

What does neighbourhood mean in the age of the climate crisis? What happens when the consequences of an action no longer affect the property next door, but melt a glacier thousands of kilometres away? This question lay at the heart of the case brought by the Peruvian farmer SaĂșl Luciano Lliuya against the German energy giant RWE, seeking compensation for protective measures against the threat of catastrophic flooding. The anthropologist Noah Walker-Crawford followed the proceedings closely and shows how the concept of neighbourliness becomes a focal point for global questions of responsibility and justice — and how these questions are ultimately negotiated in law. With precision and elegance, Walker-Crawford weaves together Luciano Lliuya’s story with complex debates on causation, evidence, and the role of law in the climate crisis. The result is a fascinating book that shows how a little-known provision of the German Civil Code came to stand at the centre of one of the most remarkable climate lawsuits of our time.

*

The Week on Verfassungsblog

summarised by JANA TRAPP

“The Great Unraveling,” as Oona Hathaway has called it, has been very much on our minds this week as well. Only hours after the United States and Israel launched their attacks on Iran, MARKO MILANOVIĆ (GER) had already produced an initial international law assessment with remarkable speed. In his view, the attack breached the prohibition on the use of force under Article 2(4) of the UN Charter in a way that could hardly be clearer.

Among the first casualties of the airstrikes was none other than Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. SOPHIE DUROY and LUCA TRENTA (ENG) take Khamenei’s death as an occasion to reflect on the normalisation of “assassination” as a tool of foreign policy.

The question of what, if anything, remains of international law also preoccupied MATTHIAS GOLDMANN (ENG) this week. He contrasts two visions of world order: on the one hand, a politics of naked power, in which governments place their own moral judgments above law and institutions; on the other, a rule-based order grounded in predictability and equality. The latter vision, he argues, can remain stable only if it takes social equality seriously rather than invoking it as empty rhetoric.

A somewhat fragile commitment to international law was also evident in the Netherlands this week. The new foreign minister expressed “understanding” for the attacks on Iran and called for a “more realistic” course. OTTO SPIJKERS (ENG) recalls that Article 90 of the Dutch Constitution obliges the government to promote the international legal order and warns against abandoning this constitutional guiding principle in favour of power-political considerations.

While international rules are eroding, some legislators are at least trying to make their national institutions more resilient. In Saxony-Anhalt, the “Parliamentary Reform Act 2026” aims to strengthen the state constitutional court, place the State Centre for Civic Education on a statutory footing, and protect the constituent session of the state parliament against attempts at capture, for instance by the far-right AfD. ROBERT BÖTTNER (GER) views this as an ambitious effort in resilience legislation that builds upon much of what recent debates have yielded, yet remains incomplete in places and even opens new opportunities for obstruction – all under an extremely tight timetable before the September elections.

Similar conflicts over institutional independence are also emerging at the European level: On 5 February, the Court of Justice of the European Union declared the lifting of the immunity of Carles Puigdemont and his fellow members invalid. DAVID PÉREZ DE LAMO (EN) shows how the Court strengthens parliamentary immunity as a personal privilege.

The use of confidential informants is currently stirring political controversy. In Bremen, an informant has been exposed who allegedly spent years spying on the group “Interventionistische Linke”, a German far-left activist network. PETER MADJAROV and DAVID WERDERMANN (GER) shift the perspective: in light of the case law of the Federal Constitutional Court, the use of the informant was likely unlawful for several reasons.

True to form, the Federal Constitutional Court (FCC) has once again offered plenty of material for constitutional fine-tuning this week. As expected, the Court upheld the extension of Germany’s rent regulation as constitutional. What makes the decision particularly interesting emerges on closer inspection: TIMO LAVEN (GER) shows how the Court clears up misconceptions surrounding its 2019 ruling, refuses to treat the rent cap as a purely transitional instrument, and in fact expands rather than narrows the scope for rent regulation.

Even before decisions are handed down, the FCC can prompt moments of institutional self-reflection. Last Thursday, the Second Senate heard arguments on whether legislative procedures can be “too fast” or whether the Bundestag is subject to a constitutional speed limit. The Senate itself floated this idea in 2023. JOHANNES GALLON (GER) describes a hearing in which the Court visibly struggled with its own, not especially workable standards and searched for a way out of the trap it had set for itself.

True gems can also be found in decisions that at first glance seem rather inconspicuous. A student had challenged the 2025 pension reform, arguing that he pays contributions today without being able to reasonably expect equivalent benefits in the future. The Federal Constitutional Court declined to hear the complaint but used the decision to clarify its understanding of the intertemporal protection of freedom developed in its landmark 2021 climate ruling. MATTHIAS GEGENWART (GER) explains why this matters for the relationship between fundamental rights and the welfare state.

Spaces of freedom protected by fundamental rights were also at issue at the Göttingen Regional Court: shortly before the end of the year, Sparkasse Göttingen, a German savings bank, attempted to close the bank account of Rote Hilfe e.V., a left-wing solidarity organisation that provides legal and financial support to activists facing political prosecution – unsuccessfully, as the court held. SIMON SIMANOVSKI (DE) warns that anti-money-laundering law here disguises political value judgments as economic rationality, thereby constraining spaces safeguarded by fundamental rights.

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While German courts are thus reflecting on different dimensions of freedom, the European Union is turning its attention to the architecture of digital platforms. TikTok currently finds itself in the spotlight: according to the European Commission’s preliminary findings, the platform’s design may breach the Digital Services Act. EVA LIEVENS, VITA SHALA, and VALERIE VERDOODT (ENG) explain why this is not merely about regulating content, but about regulating the very logic of social media.

The Digital Services Act is also sparking conflict in Poland – this time with constitutional and European implications. President Karol Nawrocki has vetoed the national implementing legislation, warning that it threatens freedom of expression. ZUZANNA NOWICKA and ALEKSANDRA WÓJTOWICZ (ENG) interpret this stance mainly as an import from US politics: a MAGA-style “free speech” narrative that distorts the European regulatory tradition but proves strikingly adaptable to local politics.

How quietly rule-of-law institutions can be hollowed out is currently on display in Serbia. There, the government has adopted a package of judicial reforms, the “Mrdić laws,” which allow for large-scale transfers of prosecutors working in anti-corruption cases. TEODORA MILJOJKOVIĆ (ENG) shows how the judiciary’s formal independence remains intact on paper while its functional capacity is weakened in practice.

As institutions are remodeled, economic policy paradigms are shifting as well. After months of delays, internal friction, and warnings of a “full China-style” model, the European Commission is now preparing its proposal for an Industrial Accelerator Act. PIM JANSEN and IOANNIS KAMPOURAKIS (ENG) see in this less a leap toward Chinese-style industrial policy than a gradual but profound move away from the idea that Europe can govern its economic constitution primarily through competition rules.

Turning to economic matters: in the Lafarge case, France’s Court de cassation will soon clarify when companies must bear criminal responsibility for activities connected to the gravest international crimes. In the future, SABEEH KHAYYAT (ENG) argues, the decisive factor may be less a “criminal purpose” than the knowledge that one’s business operations are linked to crimes against humanity.

In the United Kingdom, a classic fundamental rights issue was on the agenda this week: protest. The High Court of England and Wales declared the government’s decision to ban the activist group Palestine Action unlawful. JACOB ROWBOTTOM (ENG) highlights how far-reaching decisions to ban organisations are, as they aim to eliminate them as such and thereby also affect people only loosely connected to them, with correspondingly serious implications for freedom of expression and assembly.

A term that may soon join the archive of “forgotten terms” in discrimination debates: xenophobia. Two UN treaty bodies have for the first time issued joint guidelines on combating xenophobia, particularly against migrants and those perceived as such. MORITZ BAUMGÄRTEL (ENG) welcomes this step but points to a central blind spot: as long as migration control is treated as a legitimate objective of state sovereignty, the very structural xenophobia that the guidelines seek to address will continue to recur.

Meanwhile, questions of (political) loyalty are also making their way into cultural policy. In the wake of the Berlinale, Berlin’s international film festival, debate has once again flared up over whether public funding should be tied to loyalty pledges. JUSTUS DUHNKRACK (DE) refers to such letters as “yellow funding notices” – and warns that cultural funding can easily slide into a form of pre-emptive ideological vetting.

International and national rules are once again being renegotiated on many fronts this week: sometimes openly disregarded, sometimes deftly reinterpreted, sometimes quietly reinforced through seemingly minor decisions. One thing is certain: there will be no shortage of topics for discussion on Verfassungsblog in the coming weeks. Spring is just around the corner – and with it, a new season of constitutional and international law debates.

*

That’s it for this week. Take care and all the best!

Yours,

the Verfassungsblog Team

 

If you would like to receive the weekly editorial as an e-mail, you can subscribe here.

The post “The Unwillingness to Call This Illegal Is a Terrible Mistake” appeared first on Verfassungsblog.

„Die Weigerung, dies als Völkerrechtsbruch zu benennen, ist ein schwerer Fehler“

Der Angriff der Vereinigten Staaten und Israels auf den Iran dauert nun seit rund einer Woche an. Die regionalen und globalen Folgen dieses Krieges sind kaum absehbar. Deutlich klarer ist dagegen ein anderer Befund: Der Krieg ist nur das jĂŒngste Beispiel fĂŒr eine tiefgreifende Transformation der internationalen Ordnung. Erleben wir das Ende des zwischenstaatlichen Gewaltverbots? Und sollten sich europĂ€ische Regierungen klarer zu VerstĂ¶ĂŸen gegen das Völkerrecht Ă€ußern?

Wir haben mit Oona A. Hathaway gesprochen, Professorin fĂŒr Völkerrecht an der Yale Law School. Hathaway zĂ€hlt zu den weltweit fĂŒhrenden Expertinnen fĂŒr das Recht bewaffneter Konflikte und ist gewĂ€hlte PrĂ€sidentin der American Society of International Law.

1. Vor rund einer Woche haben die Vereinigten Staaten und Israel ihren Krieg gegen den Iran begonnen. Die deutsche Bundesregierung hat sich – ebenso wie mehrere andere europĂ€ische Staaten – bislang geweigert, den Angriff als Verstoß gegen das Völkerrecht zu bezeichnen. Ist Europa gut damit beraten, weniger stark auf das Völkerrecht zu achten?

Der Krieg der USA und Israels gegen den Iran ist eindeutig und unmissverstĂ€ndlich rechtswidrig. Nach der Charta der Vereinten Nationen ist die Anwendung von Gewalt durch einen Staat gegen einen anderen nur dann rechtmĂ€ĂŸig, wenn sie vom UN-Sicherheitsrat autorisiert ist oder wenn es sich um einen notwendigen und verhĂ€ltnismĂ€ĂŸigen Akt der Selbstverteidigung handelt. Beides ist hier nicht der Fall.

Gerade weil der Angriff so eindeutig rechtswidrig ist, ist die Weigerung europĂ€ischer Staaten, ihn als Verstoß gegen das Völkerrecht zu bezeichnen, ein schwerer Fehler. HĂ€tte es mehr Reaktionen auf Trumps rechtswidrigen Einsatz militĂ€rischer Gewalt in Venezuela gegeben, hĂ€tte er vielleicht keinen weiteren rechtswidrigen Krieg gegen den Iran begonnen.

Dass die Trump-Administration dafĂŒr nicht zur Rechenschaft gezogen wurde, zeigt außerdem, dass das Völkerrecht zunehmend als BeschrĂ€nkung fĂŒr einige Staaten gilt, aber eben nicht fĂŒr alle. Die ohnehin bereits schwache internationale Rechtsordnung wird hierdurch noch weiter geschwĂ€cht.

2. Sie haben das Gewaltverbot als Fundament der internationalen Rechtsordnung nach 1945 beschrieben. Beginnt diese Ordnung nun zu zerfallen?

Wir sind vielleicht noch zu nah an den aktuellen Ereignissen, um das mit Sicherheit sagen zu können. Vieles deutet jedoch darauf hin, dass wir uns tatsĂ€chlich inmitten einer Transformation der internationalen Rechtsordnung befinden. Das Gewaltverbot scheint zumindest gegenĂŒber den mĂ€chtigsten Staaten einen großen Teil seiner begrenzenden Wirkung verloren zu haben.

Wir mĂŒssen aber auch sehen, dass ein großer Teil der Welt außerhalb Europas die Lage anders einschĂ€tzen wĂŒrde. Dort wĂŒrde man darauf hinweisen, dass mĂ€chtige Staaten die Regeln seit Jahrzehnten beugen und brechen. Man denke etwa an den US-Krieg gegen den Irak im Jahr 2003, an die jahrzehntelangen Anti-Terror-Operationen der USA und anderer Staaten im gesamten Nahen Osten, an Russlands Krieg nicht nur gegen die Ukraine, sondern auch gegen Georgien und Moldau, oder an Chinas Besetzung umstrittener Felsen, Riffe und Inseln im SĂŒdchinesischen Meer.

Gleichzeitig hĂ€lt sich der Großteil der Welt weiterhin an das Gewaltverbot. Es gibt 193 Staaten in den Vereinten Nationen, und die ĂŒberwĂ€ltigende Mehrheit hat das Gewaltverbot der UN-Charta stets eingehalten – und tut dies auch heute noch. Ob die Vergangenheit wirklich so gut und die Gegenwart so schlecht ist, wie manche glauben, erscheint daher weniger eindeutig.

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Am 16. MÀrz um 17 Uhr erklÀrt Prof. Dr. Peer Pasternack wie Hochschulen demokratische Resilienz stÀrken und zugleich ihre eigene WiderstandsfÀhigkeit sichern können.

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3. Der US-amerikanische Verteidigungsminister Pete Hegseth hat gerade gesagt, dass im Krieg gegen den Iran nun „keine dummen Einsatzregeln“ mehr gelten und die Idee rechtlicher BeschrĂ€nkungen im Grunde zurĂŒckgewiesen. Sogar vor dem Kellogg-Briand-Pakt von 1928 gab es rechtliche Normen, die Kriege begrenzen und einhegen sollten. Bewegen wir uns auf eine Welt zu, in der die Regeln des Krieges nun ganz verschwinden?

Ich glaube, der Verteidigungsminister bezieht sich hier auf die sogenannten Rules of Engagement. Das sind interne Regeln des MilitĂ€rs, die festlegen, wie sich die StreitkrĂ€fte der USA in einer militĂ€rischen Operation verhalten sollen. Ich weiß nicht genau, was er mit „dummen“ Einsatzregeln meint, aber vermutlich meint er Regeln, von denen er glaubt, dass sie die StreitkrĂ€fte zu stark einschrĂ€nken.

Als ich von 2014 bis 2015 im US-Verteidigungsministerium gearbeitet habe, war ich an der ÜberprĂŒfung einiger Rules of Engagement beteiligt, die fĂŒr die damaligen Operationen entwickelt worden waren. Nach meiner Erfahrung fĂŒhlten sich gerade diejenigen, die selbst Uniform trugen, besonders stark dem humanitĂ€ren Völkerrecht verpflichtet. Sie glaubten an den Wert und die Bedeutung der Einhaltung des Rechts – weil sie an die Werte glaubten, die das Recht schĂŒtzt, und weil sie wussten, dass diese Regeln auch amerikanische Soldaten im Krieg sowie amerikanische Zivilisten im eigenen Land und auf der ganzen Welt schĂŒtzen.

Ich finde es sehr beunruhigend, dass der amerikanische Verteidigungsminister diese Prinzipien offenbar nicht mehr teilt. Zugleich glaube ich nicht, dass seine Haltung von den meisten im Ministerium, das er fĂŒhrt, geteilt wird. Und sie wird auch nicht vom Rest der Welt geteilt, wo sich die meisten weiterhin den Prinzipien verpflichtet fĂŒhlen, die das humanitĂ€re Völkerrecht schĂŒtzt.

4. Lassen Sie uns fĂŒr einen Moment von der rechtlichen auf die politische und strategische Ebene wechseln. Manche hoffen, dass die Luftangriffe gegen den Iran zu einem Regimewechsel fĂŒhren könnten. Ist das eine realistische Erwartung?

Ich bin keine Iran-Expertin und kann daher keine besondere Fachkenntnis beanspruchen. Ich habe gelesen, dass derzeit Mojtaba Khamenei, der Sohn von Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, als Nachfolger seines Vaters gehandelt wird. Wenn das so eintritt, wĂŒrde sich im Grunde nichts Ă€ndern.

Was wir aus der Geschichte aber gelernt haben, ist Folgendes: Es ist leicht, aus der Luft zu zerstören, aber unmöglich, auf diese Weise etwas aufzubauen. Solange die Vereinigten Staaten ausschließlich aus der Luft operieren wollen, werden sie kaum Kontrolle darĂŒber haben, was im Iran tatsĂ€chlich geschieht. (Ich plĂ€diere aber ausdrĂŒcklich nicht fĂŒr Bodentruppen – das wĂ€re ein Fehler von epischem Ausmaß.)

Auch die kĂŒrzlich geĂ€ußerte Idee, Gruppen im Land zu bewaffnen, halte ich fĂŒr völlig verfehlt. Sie birgt die Gefahr eines BĂŒrgerkriegs und könnte eine ohnehin schon katastrophale Situation noch erheblich verschlimmern. Wir haben immer wieder gesehen – von Kuba ĂŒber den Irak und Afghanistan bis nach Libyen und Syrien –, dass solche Strategien nicht funktionieren. Ich hoffe sehr, dass wir diese Lektion nicht noch einmal lernen mĂŒssen.

Die eigentliche Tragödie ist, dass die Kosten dieser Entscheidungen nicht von denen getragen werden, die sie treffen, sondern von den unschuldigen Menschen im Iran, die mit den Folgen leben mĂŒssen.

5. Sie haben bereits vor einiger Zeit einen Prozess beschrieben, in dem sich die internationale Rechtsordnung auflöst. Ist dieser Prozess noch aufzuhalten oder haben wir eine Art Point of No Return erreicht?

Den Artikel ĂŒber The Great Unraveling habe ich fĂŒr die New York Times nach der rechtswidrigen Intervention der Trump-Administration in Venezuela geschrieben, also noch vor dem aktuellen Krieg gegen den Iran. Die Lage war damals schon gefĂ€hrlich, aber heute ist sie deutlich schlimmer. Nicht nur deshalb, weil inzwischen ein Dutzend Staaten in einen weiteren undurchdachten und rechtswidrigen Krieg im Nahen Osten hineingezogen worden sind; sondern auch deshalb, weil die Reaktion der internationalen Gemeinschaft so schwach ausgefallen ist.

Ich sehe nur wenige politische FĂŒhrungsfiguren in der Welt, die sich angesichts der offenen RechtsbrĂŒche klar fĂŒr die rule of law einsetzen. Das ist eine große Tragödie. Und genau dieses Versagen könnte am Ende dazu fĂŒhren, dass die internationale Rechtsordnung der Nachkriegszeit vollends zerfĂ€llt.

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Editor’s Pick

von MAXIM BÖNNEMANN

Was heißt Nachbarschaft in Zeiten der Klimakrise? Wenn die Folgen einer Handlung nicht das GrundstĂŒck nebenan treffen, sondern tausende Kilometer entfernt einen Gletscher zum Schmelzen bringen. Um diese Frage ging es, als der peruanische Bauer SaĂșl Luciano Lliuya den deutschen Energieriesen RWE AG verklagte und Kosten fĂŒr geeignete Schutzmaßnahmen gegen drohende Flutwellen forderte. Der Anthropologe Noah Walker-Crawford hat das Verfahren intensiv begleitet und zeigt, wie im Konzept der Nachbarschaft globale Fragen von Verantwortung und Gerechtigkeit kulminieren – und wie diese Fragen im Recht verhandelt werden. PrĂ€zise und elegant verwebt Walker-Crawford Luciano Lliuyas Geschichte mit komplexen Fragen von KausalitĂ€t, BeweisfĂŒhrung und Reflexionen ĂŒber die Rolle des Rechts in der Klimakrise. Herausgekommen ist ein faszinierendes Buch, das zeigt, wie eine unscheinbare Norm des BĂŒrgerlichen Gesetzbuchs ins Zentrum eines der wohl spektakulĂ€rsten Klimaprozesse rĂŒcken konnte.

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Die Woche auf dem Verfassungsblog

zusammengefasst von JANA TRAPP

Was Oona Hathaway als „The Great Unraveling“ beschreibt, hat diese Woche auch uns maßgeblich beschĂ€ftigt. Der Angriff der Vereinigten Staaten und Israels auf den Iran war erst wenige Stunden alt, da legte die schnelle Feder von MARKO MILANOVIĆ (DE) bereits eine erste völkerrechtliche Einordnung vor. Der Angriff verletze das Gewaltverbot aus Art. 2 Abs. 4 der UN-Charta in einer Weise, wie sie kaum eindeutiger sein könnte.

Zu den ersten Opfern der LuftschlĂ€ge gehörte niemand Geringerer als der iranische StaatsfĂŒhrer Ali Khamenei. SOPHIE DUROY und LUCA TRENTA (EN) nehmen Khameneis Tod zum Anlass, um ĂŒber die Normalisierung von „assassination“ als außenpolitisches Werkzeug nachzudenken.

Was vom Völkerrecht eigentlich noch bleibt, fragt diese Woche auch MATTHIAS GOLDMANN (EN) – und stellt zwei Visionen der Weltordnung gegenĂŒber: auf der einen Seite eine Politik offener Macht, in der StaatsfĂŒhrungen ihre eigene Moral ĂŒber Recht und Institutionen stellen, auf der anderen eine regelbasierte Ordnung, die auf Voraussehbarkeit und Gleichheit setzt. Diese zweite Vision könne nur dann stabil funktionieren, wenn sie soziale Gleichheit ernst nimmt und nicht bloß als Rhetorik verwendet.

Ein allenfalls brĂŒchiges Bekenntnis zum Völkerrecht war diese Woche auch aus den Niederlanden zu vernehmen. Der neue Außenminister erklĂ€rte, er habe „VerstĂ€ndnis“ fĂŒr die Angriffe auf den Iran und rief zu einem „realistischeren“ Kurs auf. OTTO SPIJKERS (EN) erinnert daran, dass Artikel 90 der niederlĂ€ndischen Verfassung die Regierung verpflichtet, die internationale Rechtsordnung zu fördern – und warnt davor, diese verfassungsrechtliche Leitplanke zugunsten machtpolitischer ErwĂ€gungen beiseitezuschieben.

WĂ€hrend internationale Regeln erodieren, bemĂŒhen sich manche Gesetzgeber, wenigstens ihre nationalen Institutionen widerstandsfĂ€higer zu machen. In Sachsen-Anhalt soll das „Gesetz zur Parlamentsreform 2026“ das Landesverfassungsgericht stĂ€rken, die Landeszentrale fĂŒr politische Bildung gesetzlich absichern und die konstituierende Sitzung des Landtags gegen Vereinnahmung, etwa durch die AfD, abschirmen. ROBERT BÖTTNER (DE) sieht darin einen ambitionierten Versuch der Resilienzgesetzgebung, der viel aufnimmt, was die Debatte der letzten Jahre hervorgebracht hat, an einigen Stellen aber lĂŒckenhaft bleibt und neue Obstruktionsmöglichkeiten eröffnet – bei Ă€ußerst knappem Zeitplan bis zur Wahl im September.

Ähnliche Konflikte um institutionelle UnabhĂ€ngigkeit zeigen sich auch auf europĂ€ischer Ebene: Am 5. Februar hob der EuGH die ImmunitĂ€tsenthebung fĂŒr Carles Puigdemont und seine Mitstreiter auf. DAVID PÉREZ DE LAMO (EN) zeigt, wie das Gericht parlamentarische ImmunitĂ€t als persönliches Privileg stĂ€rkt.

FĂŒr politischen Wirbel sorgt derzeit der Einsatz von V-Personen. In Bremen wurde eine Quelle enttarnt, die ĂŒber Jahre die Gruppe „Interventionistische Linke“ ausspioniert haben soll. PETER MADJAROV und DAVID WERDERMANN (DE) verschieben die Perspektive: Gemessen an der Rechtsprechung des Bundesverfassungsgerichts dĂŒrfte der V-Mann-Einsatz aus mehreren GrĂŒnden rechtswidrig gewesen sein.

Auch Karlsruhe hat in dieser Woche reichlich Stoff fĂŒr verfassungsrechtliche Feinarbeit geliefert. Die VerlĂ€ngerung der Mietpreisbremse hat das Bundesverfassungsgericht erwartungsgemĂ€ĂŸ fĂŒr verfassungsgemĂ€ĂŸ erklĂ€rt. Wirklich interessant wird es aber bei genauerem Hinsehen: TIMO LAVEN (DE) zeigt, wie das Gericht mit MissverstĂ€ndnissen seiner Entscheidung von 2019 aufrĂ€umt, die Mietpreisbremse nicht als bloßes Übergangsinstrument behandelt und den Spielraum fĂŒr Mietregulierung vielmehr erweitert als verengt.

Schon bevor Entscheidungen fallen, kann Karlsruhe zur Selbstreflexion anregen. Am vergangenen Donnerstag verhandelte der Zweite Senat die Frage, ob Gesetzgebungsverfahren „zu schnell“ sein können – oder ob es ein verfassungsrechtliches Tempolimit fĂŒr den Bundestag braucht. Der Senat hatte dieses Tempolimit erst 2023 selbst in die Welt gesetzt. JOHANNES GALLON (DE) beschreibt eine Verhandlung, in der das Gericht sichtbar mit diesen eigenen, wenig praktikablen MaßstĂ€ben ringt und nach einem gangbaren Weg aus der selbstgebauten Falle sucht.

Wahre Perlen verbergen sich auch in auf den ersten Blick eher unscheinbaren BeschlĂŒssen: Ein Student hatte sich gegen das Rentenpaket 2025 gewandt, weil er heute BeitrĂ€ge zahle, ohne gleichwertige Leistungen erwarten zu können. Das Bundesverfassungsgericht nahm die Verfassungsbeschwerde nicht zur Entscheidung an, nutzte den Beschluss aber, um sein VerstĂ€ndnis der intertemporalen Freiheitssicherung aus dem Klimabeschluss von 2021 zu prĂ€zisieren. MATTHIAS GEGENWART (DE) zeigt, warum das fĂŒr das VerhĂ€ltnis von Grundrechten und Sozialstaat bedeutsam ist.

Mit FreiheitsrĂ€umen beschĂ€ftigte sich auch das LG Göttingen: Kurz vor Jahresende wollte die Sparkasse Göttingen der Roten Hilfe den Girovertrag kĂŒndigen – vergeblich, wie das Gericht entschied. SIMON SIMANOVSKI (DE) warnt, dass das GeldwĂ€scherecht hier politische Wertungen als wirtschaftliche RationalitĂ€t tarnt und grundrechtliche RĂ€ume einschrĂ€nkt.

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The ICJ’s Advisory Opinion on Climate Change
Edited by Maria Antonia Tigre, Maxim Bönnemann & Antoine De Spiegeleir

“The ICJ opinion is the most definitive statement ever made about international law and climate change. However, it is lengthy and complex. In this volume, the editors have assembled some of the world‘s leading scholars in the field to unravel the opinion and probe the subtleties of what it did and didn‘t say.”

– Michael Gerrard, Columbia Law School

Get your copy here – as always, Open Access!

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WĂ€hrend deutsche Gerichte also ĂŒber Dimensionen von Freiheit nachdenken, schaut die EuropĂ€ische Union auf die Architektur digitaler Plattformen. Im Mittelpunkt steht derzeit TikTok: Nach vorlĂ€ufigen Ergebnissen der EuropĂ€ischen Kommission könnte das Design der Plattform gegen den Digital Services Act verstoßen. EVA LIEVENS, VITA SHALA und VALERIE VERDOODT (EN) erlĂ€utern, warum hier nicht nur Inhalte reguliert werden, sondern die Logik sozialer Medien selbst.

Auch in Polen sorgt der Digital Services Act fĂŒr Konflikte – diesmal in verfassungs- und europapolitischer Zuspitzung. PrĂ€sident Karol Nawrocki hat sein Veto gegen das nationale Umsetzungsgesetz eingelegt und warnt vor einer GefĂ€hrdung der Meinungsfreiheit. ZUZANNA NOWICKA und ALEKSANDRA WÓJTOWICZ (EN) sehen in solchen Äußerungen vor allem ein Importprodukt aus der US-Politik: ein „Free Speech“-Narrativ Ă  la MAGA, das die europĂ€ische Regulierungstradition verzerrt, politisch aber bemerkenswert wirksam anschlussfĂ€hig ist.

Wie leise sich rechtsstaatliche Institutionen aushöhlen lassen, zeigt der Blick nach Serbien. Dort hat die Regierung ein Paket von Justizreformen, die sogenannten „Mrdić laws“, beschlossen, das insbesondere eine groß angelegte Versetzung von StaatsanwĂ€lt*innen im Bereich der KorruptionsbekĂ€mpfung ermöglicht. TEODORA MILJOJKOVIĆ (EN) analysiert, wie die formale UnabhĂ€ngigkeit der Justiz auf dem Papier unangetastet bleibt, wĂ€hrend ihre FunktionsfĂ€higkeit faktisch geschwĂ€cht wird.

WĂ€hrend Institutionen umgebaut werden, verschieben sich auch wirtschaftspolitische Leitbilder. Nach Monaten der Verzögerung, internen Reibereien und „full China“-Warnungen arbeitet die EuropĂ€ische Kommission an ihrem Vorschlag fĂŒr einen Industrial Accelerator Act. PIM JANSEN und IOANNIS KAMPOURAKIS (EN) sehen darin weniger einen Sprung in chinesische Industriepolitik als eine schrittweise, aber tiefgreifende Abkehr von der Vorstellung, Europa könne seine Wirtschaftsverfassung primĂ€r ĂŒber Wettbewerbsregeln steuern.

Wo wir schon bei wirtschaftspolitischen ErwĂ€gungen sind: Im Lafarge-Verfahren wird die Cour de cassation in Frankreich bald klĂ€ren, wann Unternehmen fĂŒr ihre AktivitĂ€ten im Umfeld schwerster Menschenrechtsverbrechen strafrechtlich einstehen mĂŒssen. Entscheidend könnte kĂŒnftig weniger ein „krimineller Zweck“ sein als das Wissen darum, dass das eigene GeschĂ€ft mit Menschlichkeitsverbrechen verknĂŒpft ist, so SABEEH KHAYYAT (EN).

Im Vereinigten Königreich stand in dieser Woche ein klassisches Grundrechtsthema auf der Agenda: Protest. Der High Court von England und Wales erklĂ€rte die Entscheidung der Regierung, die Aktivistengruppe Palestine Action zu verbieten, fĂŒr rechtswidrig. JACOB ROWBOTTOM (EN) macht deutlich, wie weitreichend Proskriptionsentscheidungen sind, weil sie darauf zielen, Organisationen als solche zum Verschwinden zu bringen und damit auch Menschen treffen, die nur lose mit ihnen verbunden sind – mit entsprechend gravierenden Folgen fĂŒr Meinungs- und Versammlungsfreiheit.

Zum Ausklang noch ein Kandidat fĂŒr das Vergessensbuch der Diskriminierungsdebatten: Xenophobie. Zwei UN-Vertragsorgane haben erstmals gemeinsame Leitlinien zur BekĂ€mpfung von Fremdenfeindlichkeit veröffentlicht, insbesondere gegenĂŒber Migrant*innen und als solche wahrgenommene Personen. MORITZ BAUMGÄRTEL (EN) begrĂŒĂŸt diesen Schritt, lenkt den Blick aber auf eine zentrale Leerstelle: Solange migration control als legitimes Ziel staatlicher SouverĂ€nitĂ€t gilt, entsteht genau dort jene strukturelle Xenophobie, die die Leitlinien adressieren wollen.

Übrigens: (Politische) LoyalitĂ€tsfragen machen inzwischen auch vor der Kulturpolitik nicht halt. Nach der Berlinale wird wieder darĂŒber gestritten, ob staatliche Förderung mit Bekenntnisklauseln abgesichert werden sollte. JUSTUS DUHNKRACK (DE) nennt solche Schreiben „gelbe Zuwendungsbriefe“ – und warnt, dass aus Kulturförderung so leicht eine prĂ€ventive GesinnungsprĂŒfung werden kann.

Die internationalen und nationalen Regeln werden also auch in dieser Woche an vielen Fronten neu verhandelt: mal offen missachtet, mal geschickt umgedeutet, mal in NebenbeschlĂŒssen gefestigt. GesprĂ€chsstoff fĂŒr den Verfassungsblog dĂŒrfte es in den kommenden Wochen jedenfalls reichlich geben. Der FrĂŒhling steht vor der TĂŒr – und mit ihm auch eine neue Saison verfassungs- und völkerrechtlicher Debatten.

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Das war’s fĂŒr diese Woche.

Ihnen alles Gute!

Ihr

Verfassungsblog-Team

 

Wenn Sie das wöchentliche Editorial als E-Mail zugesandt bekommen wollen, können Sie es hier bestellen.

The post „Die Weigerung, dies als Völkerrechtsbruch zu benennen, ist ein schwerer Fehler“ appeared first on Verfassungsblog.

From Directness to Foreseeability

On 18.12.2025, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) issued its judgment on the appeal against the General Court’s Order in W.S. and Others v Frontex. The judgment is uniquely important as the CJEU deviated from the academics’ view that the causal inquiry shall be conducted in two steps and used instead the causal test of directness. Given that adjudicating fora are increasingly relying on less demanding causal tests, in particular the test of foreseeability in cases of multi-actor involvement in a refoulement, the CJEU should implement this method where Frontex and the EU Member States are involved in refoulement-related damage.

Background of W.S. and Others v Frontex

W.S. and Others v Frontex concerned several Syrian nationals, who, a few days after their arrival in Greece and despite having expressed their intention to apply for international protection, were deported to TĂŒrkiye in a joint return operation undertaken by Greece and Frontex (paras. 2–16). The applicants sought compensation for the damage flowing from Frontex’s failure to confirm the existence of a return decision concerning them. However, their action for damages was dismissed, after the General Court found that Frontex was not competent to assess return decisions or international protection applications, and, thus, that there was no causal link between Frontex’s conduct and the damage suffered by the protection-seekers (para. 66). Thereafter, the applicants appealed to the CJEU.

In her Opinion, the Advocate General proposed the following. When the CJEU assesses the fulfilment of the conditions for the determination of the EU’s non-contractual liability (i.e., the existence of an unlawful act committed by Frontex, the existence of actual damage suffered by the appellants, and the existence of a causal link between the two), it ought to first explore whether wrongful conduct had been committed by Frontex. Only thereafter it should proceed with exploring the factual and legal causation (i.e. whether Frontex’s wrongful conduct was a cause in fact and in law of the damage suffered). However, the CJEU proceeded otherwise. It held that since the conditions for the determination of the EU’s non-contractual liability are cumulative, the EU judicature does not necessary need to consider all of them, if one of them is not met (para. 61). Henceforth, it can directly assess the existence of a causal link between the alleged wrongful conduct and the damage even without explicitly identifying the wrongful act and the damage.

The CJEU acknowledged that under the 2016 Frontex Regulation, Frontex bears the obligation to confirm the existence of return decisions for all persons included in return operations (paras. 101–102). However, in the CJEU’s view, Frontex’s violation of this obligation did not automatically give rise to Frontex’s liability. To this end, the existence of a direct causal link between Frontex’s omission and the damage alleged would need to be further examined (paras. 111–112, 148).

The CJEU reiterated that a direct causal link exists when the damage flows sufficiently directly from the unlawful conduct, i.e. when the latter is the determining cause of the damage (para. 150). Nonetheless, the Court further recalled that even when this causal link is established, it may be broken, inter alia, by a contributing act of the affected person, which occurs between the conduct complained of and the damage suffered, if that act constitutes the determinant cause of the damage (para. 151). This could be the case also in the instance of the appellants, who upon their return to TĂŒrkiye decided to travel to Erbil.

However, the Court further underlined that the assessment of whether such a contributing factor is capable of breaking the causal nexus requires a consideration of the circumstances, under which the decision was made, and of the particular vulnerability of asylum-seekers, which is likely to affect their judgment, due to their migration and the traumatic experiences (paras. 152–156). In such exceptional situations, the decision of the asylum-seekers can be regarded as a reasonable response to the risk of being subjected to refoulement and the causal link between the unlawful act of Frontex and the occurred damages may remain unbroken (paras. 157–158). In this light, the CJEU held that the General Court erred in concluding that the appellants’ decision broke the causal link, because it was their own choice, without examining the context of that choice (para. 161).

Conflating factual and legal causation

The difficulty for adjudicating fora in addressing overdetermination – namely, situations in which multiple causes (such as the acts of multiple wrongdoers) contribute to a single damage (such as damage arising from refoulement) – has been repeatedly highlighted. Part of this difficulty lies in the conflation between the two steps of the causal inquiry, i.e. of factual and legal causation. In the specific case of W.S. and Others v Frontex, the distinction between the step of the factual and the legal causation inquiry would require the CJEU (and earlier the General Court) to assess the following. At the first step, whether Greece’s wrongful failure to provide Frontex with return decisions concerning the appellants (para. 109), and Frontex’s failure to comply with its obligation to verify the existence of return decisions (paras. 101–102) were factual causes of the damage suffered by the appellants. In other words, whether they were necessary elements of a set of conditions that was sufficient to give rise to the appellants’ damage (see: Katsoni, pp. 74-77, 350-353). Then, at the second step, the CJEU would need to perform its legal causation inquiry, i.e. to assess whether Frontex should be also held legally accountable for its contribution to the damage suffered by the refouled appellants. Or whether – despite its factual contribution to the damage through its failure to verify the existence of return decisions – it should bear no liability for some other legal reason (such as due to the appellants’ contributory fault: see paras. 150-151 of the judgment).

The CJEU’s obiter on how it thinks that a causal inquiry should be conducted reveals that the Court does not embrace this two-step approach. The Court would have complied with this two-step inquiry, if it had acknowledged that the General Court erred in law by failing to assess first which wrongful acts had been committed by Frontex and Greece, as well as whether these wrongful acts were necessary for the rise of the appellants’ damage. Only then should it have assessed whether Frontex should be held accountable for (part of) the appellants’ damage. Yet the CJEU decision to uphold the merge of the factual and the causal inquiry, and that the EU judicature is not required to examine the conditions for the rise of EU’s liability in any particular order (para. 61), is not a novelty of this particular judgment.

The practice of not distinguishing explicitly between these two steps has been noted as a characteristic of fora that wish to conceal the precise rationale behind the conclusions of their causal inquiry. In such cases, the conflation of factual and legal causation may not even affect the outcome of the inquiry. Indeed, it would be hard to believe – and certainly harder to argue – that the well-read CJEU judges could not comprehend that the causal inquiry is in fact a two-step process. By preserving the mysticism surrounding the causal inquiry, the CJEU granted the EU judicature with flexibility as to the parameters that it can take into consideration throughout this inquiry, to the detriment of transparency and foreseeability. Be that as it may, the CJEU’s judgment in W.S. allows us to deduce further hints as to the Court’s view of a correct causal inquiry in instances of overdetermined refoulement.

Selective application of a “one size fits all” approach

The CJEU underlined that for the EU to bear liability there shall exist a direct causal link between the EU’s wrongful conduct and the damage alleged (paras. 112, 148). Doing so, the Court pointed to “directness” as the appropriate test of causation in this context. Yet this test has been characterised as more difficult to be met than the rest of the causal tests developed in jurisprudence (see Lanovoy, pp. 47–54), as well as rather simplistic, given its limited capacity to capture within its scope multiple causes that contribute to a damage (ibid, pp. 53–54). The Court indicated its understanding of the meaning of a “direct causal link” descriptively, holding that such a link does not exist when the damage is a remote consequence (i.e. not a sufficiently direct one) of the wrongful conduct (paras. 149–150). At the same time, it also underlined that the direct nature of the causal link must not be understood restrictively (para. 150).

In this way, the CJEU seems to be supporting a flexible understanding of the causal test of directness, which has been also upheld by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in its recent Advisory Opinion on climate change. There “the standard of ‘a sufficiently direct and certain causal nexus’ between an alleged wrongful action or omission and the alleged damage” was found to be “flexible enough to address the challenges arising in respect of the phenomenon of climate change” even in instances of overdetermination (para. 436). However, the CJEU also noted that for the damage to be captured within this test, the EU’s wrongful act shall be the determining cause of the damage in the sense that the damage would not have arisen in the absence of that conduct, which again points to a narrow application of the test of directness (para. 153). This remark points to a restrictive understanding of directness.

These vague remarks, which partly support a narrow perception of directness and partly a broad understanding thereof, preserve some latitude of discretion for the General Court in its assessment of whether there is a causal link between Frontex’s omission to verify the existence of return decisions and the applicant’s damage in W.S. and Others v Frontex. Although the CJEU’s decision to allow the EU judicature to remain flexible while applying the causal test of directness is not itself problematic, the Court’s selective consideration of normative factors in some – thus not all – parts of its proposal of how the causal inquiry should be done, is. These normative factors were essentially policy-based and value-laden factors that should – in the Court’s view – play a role in the determination of whether responsibility and liability should be expanded or delimited (Stoyanova, pp. 16-17).

Although the CJEU took such normative considerations into account in one aspect of its causal inquiry, i.e. during its reflection on why the appellant’s decision to travel to Erbil should not be perceived as breaking the causal chain between Frontex’s wrongful omission and the damage caused, and should, thus, not exclude the Agency’s liability, it did not consider any such parameters before opting for the causal test of directness. Instead, this choice was only made due to the Court’s reliance on the test of directness in its established jurisprudence (para. 60). As the following section will highlight, other fora have in similar cases taken into account normative considerations, while choosing a test of causation for their inquiries.

Normative considerations in other fora’s relevant causal inquiries

In its infamous judgment in Hirsi Jamaa and Others v. Italy, the Grand Chamber of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) was confronted with an application concerning Italy’s involvement in the exposure of protection-seekers to the risk of arbitrary repatriation in Libya. The ECtHR took into consideration the scope and nature of the primary rule at issue (i.e. non-refoulement) and examined the foreseeable consequences of Italy’s removal of the applicants to Libya (para. 117). It held that Italy knew or should have known about the absence of asylum procedures in Libya and that, by returning protection-seekers thereto, Italy breached Article 3 of the ECHR because it exposed them to the risk of arbitrary repatriation (paras. 154–158). Similarly, in ZT v Australia, the Committee Against Torture highlighted that in instances of chain refoulement, the initially deporting State will bear responsibility if it transfers protection-seekers to an intermediate state, from where it is foreseeable that they may be deported to a third state that will subject them to the risk of torture (para. 6.4).

By relying on the causal test of foreseeability, the above fora have not only used the most appropriate causation test for cases involving overdetermination, but have also shown consideration of the importance of non-refoulement, as the primary rule that prohibits the harm inflicted upon the applicants. Adopting the causal test of directness for the assessment of whether the EU’s wrongful act contributed (alongside a Member-State’s conduct) to (the damage stemming from) a refoulement and to (the damage stemming from) a loss in the value of bonds, disregards that refoulement is a wrongful outcome that countless conventional, customary and even peremptory norms seek to prevent. Different wrongful outcomes that have different legal value require the Court’s engagement with a different test of causation. In other words, they require the Court to deviate from its standard practice of using the test of directness in all of its judgments, regardless of whether these judgments concern the EU’s involvement in a refoulement or its involvement in a loss in the value of bonds.

The need to choose different causation tests when normative considerations so require finds support in jurisprudence and in relevant scholarship. The ICJ has hinted to the need to choose the causation test that will be used depending on inter alia the harm suffered, holding that “the ‘causal nexus’ between the wrongful act and the damage in question is not static in nature, and may vary depending on the primary rule violated and the nature and extent of the injury” (Advisory Opinion on Climate Change, para. 436). Although this remark was made in the ICJ’s climate change Advisory Opinion, it reflects the ICJ’s solid view on how the causal inquiry shall be done in instances of overdetermination (see also: Armed Activities on the Territory of the Congo, para. 93). These points have also been raised in academics’ writings on the same issue (see: here, p. 59; here, pp. 60-62; here, p. 478, and here, pp. 80-81).

Concluding remarks

The CJEU’s judgment in W.S. and Others v Frontex brought to the forefront the Court’s problematic persistence to the use of the causal test of directness even in cases concerning overdetermined refoulement. Considering the CJEU’s important role as a forum where pushback survivors can seek the acknowledgment of Frontex’s wrongful involvement in their refoulement, and considering the relevant jurisprudence of other fora, which reveals a coherent consideration of normative factors during the selection of the test of causation that these fora employ in their causal inquiries, it is essential that the CJEU (and by extension also the General Court) follows a similar approach. As the blogpost highlighted, other fora that have taken into account such normative considerations in all parts of concerning overdetermined refoulement have been led to the test of foreseeability in their causal inquiries. By following this approach, the CJEU would not only align its jurisprudence with the relevant jurisprudence of other fora, but it would also contribute to a coherent jurisprudential oversight over the observance of non-refoulement in practice.

The post From Directness to Foreseeability appeared first on Verfassungsblog.


entfernt:
Kaum beachtet von der Weltöffentlichkeit, bahnt sich der erste internationale Strafprozess gegen die Verantwortlichen und Strippenzieher der Corona‑P(l)andemie an. Denn beim Internationalem Strafgerichtshof (IStGH) in Den Haag wurde im Namen des britischen Volkes eine Klage wegen „Verbrechen gegen die Menschlichkeit“ gegen hochrangige und namhafte Eliten eingebracht. Corona-Impfung: Anklage vor Internationalem Strafgerichtshof wegen Verbrechen gegen die Menschlichkeit! – UPDATE

Radio MĂŒnchen · Argumente gegen die Herrschaft der Angst - Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg im GesprĂ€ch

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“The Unwillingness to Call This Illegal Is a Terrible Mistake”

The United States and Israel have launched a large-scale military attack against Iran, with unforeseeable consequences. Yet the war against Iran is only the latest example of a profound transformation of the postwar international legal order. Are we witnessing the end of the system governing the use of force? And should European governments speak out more clearly about violations of international law?

We spoke with Oona A. Hathaway, Professor of International Law at Yale Law School and one of the world’s leading scholars on the legal order governing war and the prohibition of the use of force. Hathaway is also President-Elect of the American Society of International Law.

1. Nearly a week ago, the United States and Israel began their war against Iran. The German government, along with several other European governments, has so far been reluctant to characterize the attack as a violation of international law. Is Europe well advised to place less emphasis on international law and instead adopt a more realpolitik stance?

The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran is clearly and unequivocally unlawful.  Under the United Nations Charter, a use of force by one state against another is lawful only if it is authorized by the UN Security Council or if it is a necessary and proportionate act of self defense.  Neither is true here.  Given that the use of force is so clearly unlawful, the unwillingness of European states to characterize the attack as a violation of international law is a terrible mistake. If there had been more of a response to Trump’s unlawful use of military force in Venezuela, perhaps he would not have launched another unlawful war against Iran. The failure to call the Trump Administration to account also highlights that international law is being treated as a constraint for some but not for all.  The result will be a further weakening of the already weak international legal order.

2. You have described the prohibition on the use of force as the bedrock of the postwar international legal order. Is that order now beginning to collapse?

We are perhaps too close to events to know with certainty. But it does seem that we are in the midst of a transformation in the international legal order. The prohibition on the use of force appears to have lost much of its power to constrain at least the most powerful states.  It is important to recognize, however, that much of the world outside Europe would say that things are not quite so simple.  They would point out that the powerful states have bent and broken the rules for decades. Look at the U.S. war in Iraq in 2003, the decades-long counter-terrorism operations by the U.S. and others throughout the Middle East, Russia’s use of force against not just Ukraine but Georgia and Moldova as well, and China’s occupation of contested rocks, reefs, and islands in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, most of the world continues to follow the prohibition on the use of force.  There are 193 states in the United Nations, and the vast majority have always complied with the prohibition on the use of force in the UN Charter, and they continue to do so today. So it is less clear that the past is as good—or the present as bad—as some might think.

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3. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth recently said that “no stupid rules of engagement” apply in the war against Iran, effectively rejecting the very idea of legal constraints. If we look back at history, even before the Kellogg-Briand Pact of 1928, there were legal norms intended to constrain war. Are we moving toward a world in which even the rules of war begin to disappear altogether?

What I believe the Secretary of Defense is referring to are the rules of engagement—or “ROEs”—that are internal rules developed by the military to govern the conduct of the U.S. armed forces in a military operation. I don’t know for certain what he means by “stupid” rules of engagement, but presumably he means rules that he thinks excessively constrain the armed forces.  When I worked at the U.S. Department of Defense in 2014-2015, I helped review some of the ROEs that were developed for operations then taking place.  In my experience, those who were the most committed to the law of armed conflict were those in uniform.  They believed in the value and importance of adhering to the law because they believed in the values that the law protects and because they knew that those same rules protect American soldiers at war, and American civilians at home and around the world.  I am dismayed that the U.S. Secretary of Defense seems to no longer believe in those principles, but I think his view is not shared by most of those who work in the Department he leads. And they are not shared by the rest of the world, where most people are committed to the principles that the law of armed conflict protects.

4. Let’s shift for a moment from the legal dimension to the political and strategic one. Some hope that the airstrikes against Iran could ultimately lead to regime change. Is that a realistic expectation?

I am not an expert on Iran, so I can’t claim any specific expertise. I read that, at the moment, Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has emerged as the likely choice to succeed his father.  If that happens, then there will be no real change.  What I think we have learned from history is that it is easy to destroy from the air, but it is impossible to build.  As long as the United States wants to operate entirely from the air, then, I think we will have little control over what happens in Iran. (I am not advocating for ground troops—that would be a mistake of epic proportions.)  The idea that has been recently floated of arming groups in the country is truly misguided, and it has the potential to spark a civil war that would make an already terrible situation far worse. We have discovered again and again—from Cuba to Iraq to Afghanistan to Libya to Syria— that this does not work. I hope that we do not need to learn that lesson yet again. The true tragedy is that the people who will pay the costs of these terrible decisions are not those who make them but the innocent people in Iran who will have to live with the consequences.

5. Looking ahead, is the “great unraveling” you have described still reversible? Or have we already passed a point of no return?

I wrote the article about the “great unraveling” of the postwar legal order for the New York Times after the Trump Administration’s unlawful intervention in Venezuela but before the current war in Iran.  If things were dangerous then, they are far worse now. They are worse not only because a dozen nations are now caught up in yet another ill-conceived and illegal war in the Middle East, but also because the response of the international community has been so weak.  I see few world leaders standing up for the rule of law in the face of blatant lawlessness. That is a great tragedy, and it is that failure that may ultimately spell the end of the postwar legal order.

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Editor’s Pick

by MAXIM BÖNNEMANN

What does neighbourhood mean in the age of the climate crisis? What happens when the consequences of an action no longer affect the property next door, but melt a glacier thousands of kilometres away? This question lay at the heart of the case brought by the Peruvian farmer SaĂșl Luciano Lliuya against the German energy giant RWE, seeking compensation for protective measures against the threat of catastrophic flooding. The anthropologist Noah Walker-Crawford followed the proceedings closely and shows how the concept of neighbourliness becomes a focal point for global questions of responsibility and justice — and how these questions are ultimately negotiated in law. With precision and elegance, Walker-Crawford weaves together Luciano Lliuya’s story with complex debates on causation, evidence, and the role of law in the climate crisis. The result is a fascinating book that shows how a little-known provision of the German Civil Code came to stand at the centre of one of the most remarkable climate lawsuits of our time.

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The Week on Verfassungsblog

summarised by JANA TRAPP

“The Great Unraveling,” as Oona Hathaway has called it, has been very much on our minds this week as well. Only hours after the United States and Israel launched their attacks on Iran, MARKO MILANOVIĆ (GER) had already produced an initial international law assessment with remarkable speed. In his view, the attack breached the prohibition on the use of force under Article 2(4) of the UN Charter in a way that could hardly be clearer.

Among the first casualties of the airstrikes was none other than Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. SOPHIE DUROY and LUCA TRENTA (ENG) take Khamenei’s death as an occasion to reflect on the normalisation of “assassination” as a tool of foreign policy.

The question of what, if anything, remains of international law also preoccupied MATTHIAS GOLDMANN (ENG) this week. He contrasts two visions of world order: on the one hand, a politics of naked power, in which governments place their own moral judgments above law and institutions; on the other, a rule-based order grounded in predictability and equality. The latter vision, he argues, can remain stable only if it takes social equality seriously rather than invoking it as empty rhetoric.

A somewhat fragile commitment to international law was also evident in the Netherlands this week. The new foreign minister expressed “understanding” for the attacks on Iran and called for a “more realistic” course. OTTO SPIJKERS (ENG) recalls that Article 90 of the Dutch Constitution obliges the government to promote the international legal order and warns against abandoning this constitutional guiding principle in favour of power-political considerations.

While international rules are eroding, some legislators are at least trying to make their national institutions more resilient. In Saxony-Anhalt, the “Parliamentary Reform Act 2026” aims to strengthen the state constitutional court, place the State Centre for Civic Education on a statutory footing, and protect the constituent session of the state parliament against attempts at capture, for instance by the far-right AfD. ROBERT BÖTTNER (GER) views this as an ambitious effort in resilience legislation that builds upon much of what recent debates have yielded, yet remains incomplete in places and even opens new opportunities for obstruction – all under an extremely tight timetable before the September elections.

Similar conflicts over institutional independence are also emerging at the European level: On 5 February, the Court of Justice of the European Union declared the lifting of the immunity of Carles Puigdemont and his fellow members invalid. DAVID PÉREZ DE LAMO (EN) shows how the Court strengthens parliamentary immunity as a personal privilege.

The use of confidential informants is currently stirring political controversy. In Bremen, an informant has been exposed who allegedly spent years spying on the group “Interventionistische Linke”, a German far-left activist network. PETER MADJAROV and DAVID WERDERMANN (GER) shift the perspective: in light of the case law of the Federal Constitutional Court, the use of the informant was likely unlawful for several reasons.

True to form, the Federal Constitutional Court (FCC) has once again offered plenty of material for constitutional fine-tuning this week. As expected, the Court upheld the extension of Germany’s rent regulation as constitutional. What makes the decision particularly interesting emerges on closer inspection: TIMO LAVEN (GER) shows how the Court clears up misconceptions surrounding its 2019 ruling, refuses to treat the rent cap as a purely transitional instrument, and in fact expands rather than narrows the scope for rent regulation.

Even before decisions are handed down, the FCC can prompt moments of institutional self-reflection. Last Thursday, the Second Senate heard arguments on whether legislative procedures can be “too fast” or whether the Bundestag is subject to a constitutional speed limit. The Senate itself floated this idea in 2023. JOHANNES GALLON (GER) describes a hearing in which the Court visibly struggled with its own, not especially workable standards and searched for a way out of the trap it had set for itself.

True gems can also be found in decisions that at first glance seem rather inconspicuous. A student had challenged the 2025 pension reform, arguing that he pays contributions today without being able to reasonably expect equivalent benefits in the future. The Federal Constitutional Court declined to hear the complaint but used the decision to clarify its understanding of the intertemporal protection of freedom developed in its landmark 2021 climate ruling. MATTHIAS GEGENWART (GER) explains why this matters for the relationship between fundamental rights and the welfare state.

Spaces of freedom protected by fundamental rights were also at issue at the Göttingen Regional Court: shortly before the end of the year, Sparkasse Göttingen, a German savings bank, attempted to close the bank account of Rote Hilfe e.V., a left-wing solidarity organisation that provides legal and financial support to activists facing political prosecution – unsuccessfully, as the court held. SIMON SIMANOVSKI (DE) warns that anti-money-laundering law here disguises political value judgments as economic rationality, thereby constraining spaces safeguarded by fundamental rights.

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While German courts are thus reflecting on different dimensions of freedom, the European Union is turning its attention to the architecture of digital platforms. TikTok currently finds itself in the spotlight: according to the European Commission’s preliminary findings, the platform’s design may breach the Digital Services Act. EVA LIEVENS, VITA SHALA, and VALERIE VERDOODT (ENG) explain why this is not merely about regulating content, but about regulating the very logic of social media.

The Digital Services Act is also sparking conflict in Poland – this time with constitutional and European implications. President Karol Nawrocki has vetoed the national implementing legislation, warning that it threatens freedom of expression. ZUZANNA NOWICKA and ALEKSANDRA WÓJTOWICZ (ENG) interpret this stance mainly as an import from US politics: a MAGA-style “free speech” narrative that distorts the European regulatory tradition but proves strikingly adaptable to local politics.

How quietly rule-of-law institutions can be hollowed out is currently on display in Serbia. There, the government has adopted a package of judicial reforms, the “Mrdić laws,” which allow for large-scale transfers of prosecutors working in anti-corruption cases. TEODORA MILJOJKOVIĆ (ENG) shows how the judiciary’s formal independence remains intact on paper while its functional capacity is weakened in practice.

As institutions are remodeled, economic policy paradigms are shifting as well. After months of delays, internal friction, and warnings of a “full China-style” model, the European Commission is now preparing its proposal for an Industrial Accelerator Act. PIM JANSEN and IOANNIS KAMPOURAKIS (ENG) see in this less a leap toward Chinese-style industrial policy than a gradual but profound move away from the idea that Europe can govern its economic constitution primarily through competition rules.

Turning to economic matters: in the Lafarge case, France’s Court de cassation will soon clarify when companies must bear criminal responsibility for activities connected to the gravest international crimes. In the future, SABEEH KHAYYAT (ENG) argues, the decisive factor may be less a “criminal purpose” than the knowledge that one’s business operations are linked to crimes against humanity.

In the United Kingdom, a classic fundamental rights issue was on the agenda this week: protest. The High Court of England and Wales declared the government’s decision to ban the activist group Palestine Action unlawful. JACOB ROWBOTTOM (ENG) highlights how far-reaching decisions to ban organisations are, as they aim to eliminate them as such and thereby also affect people only loosely connected to them, with correspondingly serious implications for freedom of expression and assembly.

A term that may soon join the archive of “forgotten terms” in discrimination debates: xenophobia. Two UN treaty bodies have for the first time issued joint guidelines on combating xenophobia, particularly against migrants and those perceived as such. MORITZ BAUMGÄRTEL (ENG) welcomes this step but points to a central blind spot: as long as migration control is treated as a legitimate objective of state sovereignty, the very structural xenophobia that the guidelines seek to address will continue to recur.

Meanwhile, questions of (political) loyalty are also making their way into cultural policy. In the wake of the Berlinale, Berlin’s international film festival, debate has once again flared up over whether public funding should be tied to loyalty pledges. JUSTUS DUHNKRACK (DE) refers to such letters as “yellow funding notices” – and warns that cultural funding can easily slide into a form of pre-emptive ideological vetting.

International and national rules are once again being renegotiated on many fronts this week: sometimes openly disregarded, sometimes deftly reinterpreted, sometimes quietly reinforced through seemingly minor decisions. One thing is certain: there will be no shortage of topics for discussion on Verfassungsblog in the coming weeks. Spring is just around the corner – and with it, a new season of constitutional and international law debates.

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That’s it for this week. Take care and all the best!

Yours,

the Verfassungsblog Team

 

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The post “The Unwillingness to Call This Illegal Is a Terrible Mistake” appeared first on Verfassungsblog.

„Die Weigerung, dies als Völkerrechtsbruch zu benennen, ist ein schwerer Fehler“

Der Angriff der Vereinigten Staaten und Israels auf den Iran dauert nun seit rund einer Woche an. Die regionalen und globalen Folgen dieses Krieges sind kaum absehbar. Deutlich klarer ist dagegen ein anderer Befund: Der Krieg ist nur das jĂŒngste Beispiel fĂŒr eine tiefgreifende Transformation der internationalen Ordnung. Erleben wir das Ende des zwischenstaatlichen Gewaltverbots? Und sollten sich europĂ€ische Regierungen klarer zu VerstĂ¶ĂŸen gegen das Völkerrecht Ă€ußern?

Wir haben mit Oona A. Hathaway gesprochen, Professorin fĂŒr Völkerrecht an der Yale Law School. Hathaway zĂ€hlt zu den weltweit fĂŒhrenden Expertinnen fĂŒr das Recht bewaffneter Konflikte und ist gewĂ€hlte PrĂ€sidentin der American Society of International Law.

1. Vor rund einer Woche haben die Vereinigten Staaten und Israel ihren Krieg gegen den Iran begonnen. Die deutsche Bundesregierung hat sich – ebenso wie mehrere andere europĂ€ische Staaten – bislang geweigert, den Angriff als Verstoß gegen das Völkerrecht zu bezeichnen. Ist Europa gut damit beraten, weniger stark auf das Völkerrecht zu achten?

Der Krieg der USA und Israels gegen den Iran ist eindeutig und unmissverstĂ€ndlich rechtswidrig. Nach der Charta der Vereinten Nationen ist die Anwendung von Gewalt durch einen Staat gegen einen anderen nur dann rechtmĂ€ĂŸig, wenn sie vom UN-Sicherheitsrat autorisiert ist oder wenn es sich um einen notwendigen und verhĂ€ltnismĂ€ĂŸigen Akt der Selbstverteidigung handelt. Beides ist hier nicht der Fall.

Gerade weil der Angriff so eindeutig rechtswidrig ist, ist die Weigerung europĂ€ischer Staaten, ihn als Verstoß gegen das Völkerrecht zu bezeichnen, ein schwerer Fehler. HĂ€tte es mehr Reaktionen auf Trumps rechtswidrigen Einsatz militĂ€rischer Gewalt in Venezuela gegeben, hĂ€tte er vielleicht keinen weiteren rechtswidrigen Krieg gegen den Iran begonnen.

Dass die Trump-Administration dafĂŒr nicht zur Rechenschaft gezogen wurde, zeigt außerdem, dass das Völkerrecht zunehmend als BeschrĂ€nkung fĂŒr einige Staaten gilt, aber eben nicht fĂŒr alle. Die ohnehin bereits schwache internationale Rechtsordnung wird hierdurch noch weiter geschwĂ€cht.

2. Sie haben das Gewaltverbot als Fundament der internationalen Rechtsordnung nach 1945 beschrieben. Beginnt diese Ordnung nun zu zerfallen?

Wir sind vielleicht noch zu nah an den aktuellen Ereignissen, um das mit Sicherheit sagen zu können. Vieles deutet jedoch darauf hin, dass wir uns tatsĂ€chlich inmitten einer Transformation der internationalen Rechtsordnung befinden. Das Gewaltverbot scheint zumindest gegenĂŒber den mĂ€chtigsten Staaten einen großen Teil seiner begrenzenden Wirkung verloren zu haben.

Wir mĂŒssen aber auch sehen, dass ein großer Teil der Welt außerhalb Europas die Lage anders einschĂ€tzen wĂŒrde. Dort wĂŒrde man darauf hinweisen, dass mĂ€chtige Staaten die Regeln seit Jahrzehnten beugen und brechen. Man denke etwa an den US-Krieg gegen den Irak im Jahr 2003, an die jahrzehntelangen Anti-Terror-Operationen der USA und anderer Staaten im gesamten Nahen Osten, an Russlands Krieg nicht nur gegen die Ukraine, sondern auch gegen Georgien und Moldau, oder an Chinas Besetzung umstrittener Felsen, Riffe und Inseln im SĂŒdchinesischen Meer.

Gleichzeitig hĂ€lt sich der Großteil der Welt weiterhin an das Gewaltverbot. Es gibt 193 Staaten in den Vereinten Nationen, und die ĂŒberwĂ€ltigende Mehrheit hat das Gewaltverbot der UN-Charta stets eingehalten – und tut dies auch heute noch. Ob die Vergangenheit wirklich so gut und die Gegenwart so schlecht ist, wie manche glauben, erscheint daher weniger eindeutig.

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Am 16. MÀrz um 17 Uhr erklÀrt Prof. Dr. Peer Pasternack wie Hochschulen demokratische Resilienz stÀrken und zugleich ihre eigene WiderstandsfÀhigkeit sichern können.

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3. Der US-amerikanische Verteidigungsminister Pete Hegseth hat gerade gesagt, dass im Krieg gegen den Iran nun „keine dummen Einsatzregeln“ mehr gelten und die Idee rechtlicher BeschrĂ€nkungen im Grunde zurĂŒckgewiesen. Sogar vor dem Kellogg-Briand-Pakt von 1928 gab es rechtliche Normen, die Kriege begrenzen und einhegen sollten. Bewegen wir uns auf eine Welt zu, in der die Regeln des Krieges nun ganz verschwinden?

Ich glaube, der Verteidigungsminister bezieht sich hier auf die sogenannten Rules of Engagement. Das sind interne Regeln des MilitĂ€rs, die festlegen, wie sich die StreitkrĂ€fte der USA in einer militĂ€rischen Operation verhalten sollen. Ich weiß nicht genau, was er mit „dummen“ Einsatzregeln meint, aber vermutlich meint er Regeln, von denen er glaubt, dass sie die StreitkrĂ€fte zu stark einschrĂ€nken.

Als ich von 2014 bis 2015 im US-Verteidigungsministerium gearbeitet habe, war ich an der ÜberprĂŒfung einiger Rules of Engagement beteiligt, die fĂŒr die damaligen Operationen entwickelt worden waren. Nach meiner Erfahrung fĂŒhlten sich gerade diejenigen, die selbst Uniform trugen, besonders stark dem humanitĂ€ren Völkerrecht verpflichtet. Sie glaubten an den Wert und die Bedeutung der Einhaltung des Rechts – weil sie an die Werte glaubten, die das Recht schĂŒtzt, und weil sie wussten, dass diese Regeln auch amerikanische Soldaten im Krieg sowie amerikanische Zivilisten im eigenen Land und auf der ganzen Welt schĂŒtzen.

Ich finde es sehr beunruhigend, dass der amerikanische Verteidigungsminister diese Prinzipien offenbar nicht mehr teilt. Zugleich glaube ich nicht, dass seine Haltung von den meisten im Ministerium, das er fĂŒhrt, geteilt wird. Und sie wird auch nicht vom Rest der Welt geteilt, wo sich die meisten weiterhin den Prinzipien verpflichtet fĂŒhlen, die das humanitĂ€re Völkerrecht schĂŒtzt.

4. Lassen Sie uns fĂŒr einen Moment von der rechtlichen auf die politische und strategische Ebene wechseln. Manche hoffen, dass die Luftangriffe gegen den Iran zu einem Regimewechsel fĂŒhren könnten. Ist das eine realistische Erwartung?

Ich bin keine Iran-Expertin und kann daher keine besondere Fachkenntnis beanspruchen. Ich habe gelesen, dass derzeit Mojtaba Khamenei, der Sohn von Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, als Nachfolger seines Vaters gehandelt wird. Wenn das so eintritt, wĂŒrde sich im Grunde nichts Ă€ndern.

Was wir aus der Geschichte aber gelernt haben, ist Folgendes: Es ist leicht, aus der Luft zu zerstören, aber unmöglich, auf diese Weise etwas aufzubauen. Solange die Vereinigten Staaten ausschließlich aus der Luft operieren wollen, werden sie kaum Kontrolle darĂŒber haben, was im Iran tatsĂ€chlich geschieht. (Ich plĂ€diere aber ausdrĂŒcklich nicht fĂŒr Bodentruppen – das wĂ€re ein Fehler von epischem Ausmaß.)

Auch die kĂŒrzlich geĂ€ußerte Idee, Gruppen im Land zu bewaffnen, halte ich fĂŒr völlig verfehlt. Sie birgt die Gefahr eines BĂŒrgerkriegs und könnte eine ohnehin schon katastrophale Situation noch erheblich verschlimmern. Wir haben immer wieder gesehen – von Kuba ĂŒber den Irak und Afghanistan bis nach Libyen und Syrien –, dass solche Strategien nicht funktionieren. Ich hoffe sehr, dass wir diese Lektion nicht noch einmal lernen mĂŒssen.

Die eigentliche Tragödie ist, dass die Kosten dieser Entscheidungen nicht von denen getragen werden, die sie treffen, sondern von den unschuldigen Menschen im Iran, die mit den Folgen leben mĂŒssen.

5. Sie haben bereits vor einiger Zeit einen Prozess beschrieben, in dem sich die internationale Rechtsordnung auflöst. Ist dieser Prozess noch aufzuhalten oder haben wir eine Art Point of No Return erreicht?

Den Artikel ĂŒber The Great Unraveling habe ich fĂŒr die New York Times nach der rechtswidrigen Intervention der Trump-Administration in Venezuela geschrieben, also noch vor dem aktuellen Krieg gegen den Iran. Die Lage war damals schon gefĂ€hrlich, aber heute ist sie deutlich schlimmer. Nicht nur deshalb, weil inzwischen ein Dutzend Staaten in einen weiteren undurchdachten und rechtswidrigen Krieg im Nahen Osten hineingezogen worden sind; sondern auch deshalb, weil die Reaktion der internationalen Gemeinschaft so schwach ausgefallen ist.

Ich sehe nur wenige politische FĂŒhrungsfiguren in der Welt, die sich angesichts der offenen RechtsbrĂŒche klar fĂŒr die rule of law einsetzen. Das ist eine große Tragödie. Und genau dieses Versagen könnte am Ende dazu fĂŒhren, dass die internationale Rechtsordnung der Nachkriegszeit vollends zerfĂ€llt.

*

Editor’s Pick

von MAXIM BÖNNEMANN

Was heißt Nachbarschaft in Zeiten der Klimakrise? Wenn die Folgen einer Handlung nicht das GrundstĂŒck nebenan treffen, sondern tausende Kilometer entfernt einen Gletscher zum Schmelzen bringen. Um diese Frage ging es, als der peruanische Bauer SaĂșl Luciano Lliuya den deutschen Energieriesen RWE AG verklagte und Kosten fĂŒr geeignete Schutzmaßnahmen gegen drohende Flutwellen forderte. Der Anthropologe Noah Walker-Crawford hat das Verfahren intensiv begleitet und zeigt, wie im Konzept der Nachbarschaft globale Fragen von Verantwortung und Gerechtigkeit kulminieren – und wie diese Fragen im Recht verhandelt werden. PrĂ€zise und elegant verwebt Walker-Crawford Luciano Lliuyas Geschichte mit komplexen Fragen von KausalitĂ€t, BeweisfĂŒhrung und Reflexionen ĂŒber die Rolle des Rechts in der Klimakrise. Herausgekommen ist ein faszinierendes Buch, das zeigt, wie eine unscheinbare Norm des BĂŒrgerlichen Gesetzbuchs ins Zentrum eines der wohl spektakulĂ€rsten Klimaprozesse rĂŒcken konnte.

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Die Woche auf dem Verfassungsblog

zusammengefasst von JANA TRAPP

Was Oona Hathaway als „The Great Unraveling“ beschreibt, hat diese Woche auch uns maßgeblich beschĂ€ftigt. Der Angriff der Vereinigten Staaten und Israels auf den Iran war erst wenige Stunden alt, da legte die schnelle Feder von MARKO MILANOVIĆ (DE) bereits eine erste völkerrechtliche Einordnung vor. Der Angriff verletze das Gewaltverbot aus Art. 2 Abs. 4 der UN-Charta in einer Weise, wie sie kaum eindeutiger sein könnte.

Zu den ersten Opfern der LuftschlĂ€ge gehörte niemand Geringerer als der iranische StaatsfĂŒhrer Ali Khamenei. SOPHIE DUROY und LUCA TRENTA (EN) nehmen Khameneis Tod zum Anlass, um ĂŒber die Normalisierung von „assassination“ als außenpolitisches Werkzeug nachzudenken.

Was vom Völkerrecht eigentlich noch bleibt, fragt diese Woche auch MATTHIAS GOLDMANN (EN) – und stellt zwei Visionen der Weltordnung gegenĂŒber: auf der einen Seite eine Politik offener Macht, in der StaatsfĂŒhrungen ihre eigene Moral ĂŒber Recht und Institutionen stellen, auf der anderen eine regelbasierte Ordnung, die auf Voraussehbarkeit und Gleichheit setzt. Diese zweite Vision könne nur dann stabil funktionieren, wenn sie soziale Gleichheit ernst nimmt und nicht bloß als Rhetorik verwendet.

Ein allenfalls brĂŒchiges Bekenntnis zum Völkerrecht war diese Woche auch aus den Niederlanden zu vernehmen. Der neue Außenminister erklĂ€rte, er habe „VerstĂ€ndnis“ fĂŒr die Angriffe auf den Iran und rief zu einem „realistischeren“ Kurs auf. OTTO SPIJKERS (EN) erinnert daran, dass Artikel 90 der niederlĂ€ndischen Verfassung die Regierung verpflichtet, die internationale Rechtsordnung zu fördern – und warnt davor, diese verfassungsrechtliche Leitplanke zugunsten machtpolitischer ErwĂ€gungen beiseitezuschieben.

WĂ€hrend internationale Regeln erodieren, bemĂŒhen sich manche Gesetzgeber, wenigstens ihre nationalen Institutionen widerstandsfĂ€higer zu machen. In Sachsen-Anhalt soll das „Gesetz zur Parlamentsreform 2026“ das Landesverfassungsgericht stĂ€rken, die Landeszentrale fĂŒr politische Bildung gesetzlich absichern und die konstituierende Sitzung des Landtags gegen Vereinnahmung, etwa durch die AfD, abschirmen. ROBERT BÖTTNER (DE) sieht darin einen ambitionierten Versuch der Resilienzgesetzgebung, der viel aufnimmt, was die Debatte der letzten Jahre hervorgebracht hat, an einigen Stellen aber lĂŒckenhaft bleibt und neue Obstruktionsmöglichkeiten eröffnet – bei Ă€ußerst knappem Zeitplan bis zur Wahl im September.

Ähnliche Konflikte um institutionelle UnabhĂ€ngigkeit zeigen sich auch auf europĂ€ischer Ebene: Am 5. Februar hob der EuGH die ImmunitĂ€tsenthebung fĂŒr Carles Puigdemont und seine Mitstreiter auf. DAVID PÉREZ DE LAMO (EN) zeigt, wie das Gericht parlamentarische ImmunitĂ€t als persönliches Privileg stĂ€rkt.

FĂŒr politischen Wirbel sorgt derzeit der Einsatz von V-Personen. In Bremen wurde eine Quelle enttarnt, die ĂŒber Jahre die Gruppe „Interventionistische Linke“ ausspioniert haben soll. PETER MADJAROV und DAVID WERDERMANN (DE) verschieben die Perspektive: Gemessen an der Rechtsprechung des Bundesverfassungsgerichts dĂŒrfte der V-Mann-Einsatz aus mehreren GrĂŒnden rechtswidrig gewesen sein.

Auch Karlsruhe hat in dieser Woche reichlich Stoff fĂŒr verfassungsrechtliche Feinarbeit geliefert. Die VerlĂ€ngerung der Mietpreisbremse hat das Bundesverfassungsgericht erwartungsgemĂ€ĂŸ fĂŒr verfassungsgemĂ€ĂŸ erklĂ€rt. Wirklich interessant wird es aber bei genauerem Hinsehen: TIMO LAVEN (DE) zeigt, wie das Gericht mit MissverstĂ€ndnissen seiner Entscheidung von 2019 aufrĂ€umt, die Mietpreisbremse nicht als bloßes Übergangsinstrument behandelt und den Spielraum fĂŒr Mietregulierung vielmehr erweitert als verengt.

Schon bevor Entscheidungen fallen, kann Karlsruhe zur Selbstreflexion anregen. Am vergangenen Donnerstag verhandelte der Zweite Senat die Frage, ob Gesetzgebungsverfahren „zu schnell“ sein können – oder ob es ein verfassungsrechtliches Tempolimit fĂŒr den Bundestag braucht. Der Senat hatte dieses Tempolimit erst 2023 selbst in die Welt gesetzt. JOHANNES GALLON (DE) beschreibt eine Verhandlung, in der das Gericht sichtbar mit diesen eigenen, wenig praktikablen MaßstĂ€ben ringt und nach einem gangbaren Weg aus der selbstgebauten Falle sucht.

Wahre Perlen verbergen sich auch in auf den ersten Blick eher unscheinbaren BeschlĂŒssen: Ein Student hatte sich gegen das Rentenpaket 2025 gewandt, weil er heute BeitrĂ€ge zahle, ohne gleichwertige Leistungen erwarten zu können. Das Bundesverfassungsgericht nahm die Verfassungsbeschwerde nicht zur Entscheidung an, nutzte den Beschluss aber, um sein VerstĂ€ndnis der intertemporalen Freiheitssicherung aus dem Klimabeschluss von 2021 zu prĂ€zisieren. MATTHIAS GEGENWART (DE) zeigt, warum das fĂŒr das VerhĂ€ltnis von Grundrechten und Sozialstaat bedeutsam ist.

Mit FreiheitsrĂ€umen beschĂ€ftigte sich auch das LG Göttingen: Kurz vor Jahresende wollte die Sparkasse Göttingen der Roten Hilfe den Girovertrag kĂŒndigen – vergeblich, wie das Gericht entschied. SIMON SIMANOVSKI (DE) warnt, dass das GeldwĂ€scherecht hier politische Wertungen als wirtschaftliche RationalitĂ€t tarnt und grundrechtliche RĂ€ume einschrĂ€nkt.

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WĂ€hrend deutsche Gerichte also ĂŒber Dimensionen von Freiheit nachdenken, schaut die EuropĂ€ische Union auf die Architektur digitaler Plattformen. Im Mittelpunkt steht derzeit TikTok: Nach vorlĂ€ufigen Ergebnissen der EuropĂ€ischen Kommission könnte das Design der Plattform gegen den Digital Services Act verstoßen. EVA LIEVENS, VITA SHALA und VALERIE VERDOODT (EN) erlĂ€utern, warum hier nicht nur Inhalte reguliert werden, sondern die Logik sozialer Medien selbst.

Auch in Polen sorgt der Digital Services Act fĂŒr Konflikte – diesmal in verfassungs- und europapolitischer Zuspitzung. PrĂ€sident Karol Nawrocki hat sein Veto gegen das nationale Umsetzungsgesetz eingelegt und warnt vor einer GefĂ€hrdung der Meinungsfreiheit. ZUZANNA NOWICKA und ALEKSANDRA WÓJTOWICZ (EN) sehen in solchen Äußerungen vor allem ein Importprodukt aus der US-Politik: ein „Free Speech“-Narrativ Ă  la MAGA, das die europĂ€ische Regulierungstradition verzerrt, politisch aber bemerkenswert wirksam anschlussfĂ€hig ist.

Wie leise sich rechtsstaatliche Institutionen aushöhlen lassen, zeigt der Blick nach Serbien. Dort hat die Regierung ein Paket von Justizreformen, die sogenannten „Mrdić laws“, beschlossen, das insbesondere eine groß angelegte Versetzung von StaatsanwĂ€lt*innen im Bereich der KorruptionsbekĂ€mpfung ermöglicht. TEODORA MILJOJKOVIĆ (EN) analysiert, wie die formale UnabhĂ€ngigkeit der Justiz auf dem Papier unangetastet bleibt, wĂ€hrend ihre FunktionsfĂ€higkeit faktisch geschwĂ€cht wird.

WĂ€hrend Institutionen umgebaut werden, verschieben sich auch wirtschaftspolitische Leitbilder. Nach Monaten der Verzögerung, internen Reibereien und „full China“-Warnungen arbeitet die EuropĂ€ische Kommission an ihrem Vorschlag fĂŒr einen Industrial Accelerator Act. PIM JANSEN und IOANNIS KAMPOURAKIS (EN) sehen darin weniger einen Sprung in chinesische Industriepolitik als eine schrittweise, aber tiefgreifende Abkehr von der Vorstellung, Europa könne seine Wirtschaftsverfassung primĂ€r ĂŒber Wettbewerbsregeln steuern.

Wo wir schon bei wirtschaftspolitischen ErwĂ€gungen sind: Im Lafarge-Verfahren wird die Cour de cassation in Frankreich bald klĂ€ren, wann Unternehmen fĂŒr ihre AktivitĂ€ten im Umfeld schwerster Menschenrechtsverbrechen strafrechtlich einstehen mĂŒssen. Entscheidend könnte kĂŒnftig weniger ein „krimineller Zweck“ sein als das Wissen darum, dass das eigene GeschĂ€ft mit Menschlichkeitsverbrechen verknĂŒpft ist, so SABEEH KHAYYAT (EN).

Im Vereinigten Königreich stand in dieser Woche ein klassisches Grundrechtsthema auf der Agenda: Protest. Der High Court von England und Wales erklĂ€rte die Entscheidung der Regierung, die Aktivistengruppe Palestine Action zu verbieten, fĂŒr rechtswidrig. JACOB ROWBOTTOM (EN) macht deutlich, wie weitreichend Proskriptionsentscheidungen sind, weil sie darauf zielen, Organisationen als solche zum Verschwinden zu bringen und damit auch Menschen treffen, die nur lose mit ihnen verbunden sind – mit entsprechend gravierenden Folgen fĂŒr Meinungs- und Versammlungsfreiheit.

Zum Ausklang noch ein Kandidat fĂŒr das Vergessensbuch der Diskriminierungsdebatten: Xenophobie. Zwei UN-Vertragsorgane haben erstmals gemeinsame Leitlinien zur BekĂ€mpfung von Fremdenfeindlichkeit veröffentlicht, insbesondere gegenĂŒber Migrant*innen und als solche wahrgenommene Personen. MORITZ BAUMGÄRTEL (EN) begrĂŒĂŸt diesen Schritt, lenkt den Blick aber auf eine zentrale Leerstelle: Solange migration control als legitimes Ziel staatlicher SouverĂ€nitĂ€t gilt, entsteht genau dort jene strukturelle Xenophobie, die die Leitlinien adressieren wollen.

Übrigens: (Politische) LoyalitĂ€tsfragen machen inzwischen auch vor der Kulturpolitik nicht halt. Nach der Berlinale wird wieder darĂŒber gestritten, ob staatliche Förderung mit Bekenntnisklauseln abgesichert werden sollte. JUSTUS DUHNKRACK (DE) nennt solche Schreiben „gelbe Zuwendungsbriefe“ – und warnt, dass aus Kulturförderung so leicht eine prĂ€ventive GesinnungsprĂŒfung werden kann.

Die internationalen und nationalen Regeln werden also auch in dieser Woche an vielen Fronten neu verhandelt: mal offen missachtet, mal geschickt umgedeutet, mal in NebenbeschlĂŒssen gefestigt. GesprĂ€chsstoff fĂŒr den Verfassungsblog dĂŒrfte es in den kommenden Wochen jedenfalls reichlich geben. Der FrĂŒhling steht vor der TĂŒr – und mit ihm auch eine neue Saison verfassungs- und völkerrechtlicher Debatten.

*

Das war’s fĂŒr diese Woche.

Ihnen alles Gute!

Ihr

Verfassungsblog-Team

 

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The post „Die Weigerung, dies als Völkerrechtsbruch zu benennen, ist ein schwerer Fehler“ appeared first on Verfassungsblog.

From Directness to Foreseeability

On 18.12.2025, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) issued its judgment on the appeal against the General Court’s Order in W.S. and Others v Frontex. The judgment is uniquely important as the CJEU deviated from the academics’ view that the causal inquiry shall be conducted in two steps and used instead the causal test of directness. Given that adjudicating fora are increasingly relying on less demanding causal tests, in particular the test of foreseeability in cases of multi-actor involvement in a refoulement, the CJEU should implement this method where Frontex and the EU Member States are involved in refoulement-related damage.

Background of W.S. and Others v Frontex

W.S. and Others v Frontex concerned several Syrian nationals, who, a few days after their arrival in Greece and despite having expressed their intention to apply for international protection, were deported to TĂŒrkiye in a joint return operation undertaken by Greece and Frontex (paras. 2–16). The applicants sought compensation for the damage flowing from Frontex’s failure to confirm the existence of a return decision concerning them. However, their action for damages was dismissed, after the General Court found that Frontex was not competent to assess return decisions or international protection applications, and, thus, that there was no causal link between Frontex’s conduct and the damage suffered by the protection-seekers (para. 66). Thereafter, the applicants appealed to the CJEU.

In her Opinion, the Advocate General proposed the following. When the CJEU assesses the fulfilment of the conditions for the determination of the EU’s non-contractual liability (i.e., the existence of an unlawful act committed by Frontex, the existence of actual damage suffered by the appellants, and the existence of a causal link between the two), it ought to first explore whether wrongful conduct had been committed by Frontex. Only thereafter it should proceed with exploring the factual and legal causation (i.e. whether Frontex’s wrongful conduct was a cause in fact and in law of the damage suffered). However, the CJEU proceeded otherwise. It held that since the conditions for the determination of the EU’s non-contractual liability are cumulative, the EU judicature does not necessary need to consider all of them, if one of them is not met (para. 61). Henceforth, it can directly assess the existence of a causal link between the alleged wrongful conduct and the damage even without explicitly identifying the wrongful act and the damage.

The CJEU acknowledged that under the 2016 Frontex Regulation, Frontex bears the obligation to confirm the existence of return decisions for all persons included in return operations (paras. 101–102). However, in the CJEU’s view, Frontex’s violation of this obligation did not automatically give rise to Frontex’s liability. To this end, the existence of a direct causal link between Frontex’s omission and the damage alleged would need to be further examined (paras. 111–112, 148).

The CJEU reiterated that a direct causal link exists when the damage flows sufficiently directly from the unlawful conduct, i.e. when the latter is the determining cause of the damage (para. 150). Nonetheless, the Court further recalled that even when this causal link is established, it may be broken, inter alia, by a contributing act of the affected person, which occurs between the conduct complained of and the damage suffered, if that act constitutes the determinant cause of the damage (para. 151). This could be the case also in the instance of the appellants, who upon their return to TĂŒrkiye decided to travel to Erbil.

However, the Court further underlined that the assessment of whether such a contributing factor is capable of breaking the causal nexus requires a consideration of the circumstances, under which the decision was made, and of the particular vulnerability of asylum-seekers, which is likely to affect their judgment, due to their migration and the traumatic experiences (paras. 152–156). In such exceptional situations, the decision of the asylum-seekers can be regarded as a reasonable response to the risk of being subjected to refoulement and the causal link between the unlawful act of Frontex and the occurred damages may remain unbroken (paras. 157–158). In this light, the CJEU held that the General Court erred in concluding that the appellants’ decision broke the causal link, because it was their own choice, without examining the context of that choice (para. 161).

Conflating factual and legal causation

The difficulty for adjudicating fora in addressing overdetermination – namely, situations in which multiple causes (such as the acts of multiple wrongdoers) contribute to a single damage (such as damage arising from refoulement) – has been repeatedly highlighted. Part of this difficulty lies in the conflation between the two steps of the causal inquiry, i.e. of factual and legal causation. In the specific case of W.S. and Others v Frontex, the distinction between the step of the factual and the legal causation inquiry would require the CJEU (and earlier the General Court) to assess the following. At the first step, whether Greece’s wrongful failure to provide Frontex with return decisions concerning the appellants (para. 109), and Frontex’s failure to comply with its obligation to verify the existence of return decisions (paras. 101–102) were factual causes of the damage suffered by the appellants. In other words, whether they were necessary elements of a set of conditions that was sufficient to give rise to the appellants’ damage (see: Katsoni, pp. 74-77, 350-353). Then, at the second step, the CJEU would need to perform its legal causation inquiry, i.e. to assess whether Frontex should be also held legally accountable for its contribution to the damage suffered by the refouled appellants. Or whether – despite its factual contribution to the damage through its failure to verify the existence of return decisions – it should bear no liability for some other legal reason (such as due to the appellants’ contributory fault: see paras. 150-151 of the judgment).

The CJEU’s obiter on how it thinks that a causal inquiry should be conducted reveals that the Court does not embrace this two-step approach. The Court would have complied with this two-step inquiry, if it had acknowledged that the General Court erred in law by failing to assess first which wrongful acts had been committed by Frontex and Greece, as well as whether these wrongful acts were necessary for the rise of the appellants’ damage. Only then should it have assessed whether Frontex should be held accountable for (part of) the appellants’ damage. Yet the CJEU decision to uphold the merge of the factual and the causal inquiry, and that the EU judicature is not required to examine the conditions for the rise of EU’s liability in any particular order (para. 61), is not a novelty of this particular judgment.

The practice of not distinguishing explicitly between these two steps has been noted as a characteristic of fora that wish to conceal the precise rationale behind the conclusions of their causal inquiry. In such cases, the conflation of factual and legal causation may not even affect the outcome of the inquiry. Indeed, it would be hard to believe – and certainly harder to argue – that the well-read CJEU judges could not comprehend that the causal inquiry is in fact a two-step process. By preserving the mysticism surrounding the causal inquiry, the CJEU granted the EU judicature with flexibility as to the parameters that it can take into consideration throughout this inquiry, to the detriment of transparency and foreseeability. Be that as it may, the CJEU’s judgment in W.S. allows us to deduce further hints as to the Court’s view of a correct causal inquiry in instances of overdetermined refoulement.

Selective application of a “one size fits all” approach

The CJEU underlined that for the EU to bear liability there shall exist a direct causal link between the EU’s wrongful conduct and the damage alleged (paras. 112, 148). Doing so, the Court pointed to “directness” as the appropriate test of causation in this context. Yet this test has been characterised as more difficult to be met than the rest of the causal tests developed in jurisprudence (see Lanovoy, pp. 47–54), as well as rather simplistic, given its limited capacity to capture within its scope multiple causes that contribute to a damage (ibid, pp. 53–54). The Court indicated its understanding of the meaning of a “direct causal link” descriptively, holding that such a link does not exist when the damage is a remote consequence (i.e. not a sufficiently direct one) of the wrongful conduct (paras. 149–150). At the same time, it also underlined that the direct nature of the causal link must not be understood restrictively (para. 150).

In this way, the CJEU seems to be supporting a flexible understanding of the causal test of directness, which has been also upheld by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in its recent Advisory Opinion on climate change. There “the standard of ‘a sufficiently direct and certain causal nexus’ between an alleged wrongful action or omission and the alleged damage” was found to be “flexible enough to address the challenges arising in respect of the phenomenon of climate change” even in instances of overdetermination (para. 436). However, the CJEU also noted that for the damage to be captured within this test, the EU’s wrongful act shall be the determining cause of the damage in the sense that the damage would not have arisen in the absence of that conduct, which again points to a narrow application of the test of directness (para. 153). This remark points to a restrictive understanding of directness.

These vague remarks, which partly support a narrow perception of directness and partly a broad understanding thereof, preserve some latitude of discretion for the General Court in its assessment of whether there is a causal link between Frontex’s omission to verify the existence of return decisions and the applicant’s damage in W.S. and Others v Frontex. Although the CJEU’s decision to allow the EU judicature to remain flexible while applying the causal test of directness is not itself problematic, the Court’s selective consideration of normative factors in some – thus not all – parts of its proposal of how the causal inquiry should be done, is. These normative factors were essentially policy-based and value-laden factors that should – in the Court’s view – play a role in the determination of whether responsibility and liability should be expanded or delimited (Stoyanova, pp. 16-17).

Although the CJEU took such normative considerations into account in one aspect of its causal inquiry, i.e. during its reflection on why the appellant’s decision to travel to Erbil should not be perceived as breaking the causal chain between Frontex’s wrongful omission and the damage caused, and should, thus, not exclude the Agency’s liability, it did not consider any such parameters before opting for the causal test of directness. Instead, this choice was only made due to the Court’s reliance on the test of directness in its established jurisprudence (para. 60). As the following section will highlight, other fora have in similar cases taken into account normative considerations, while choosing a test of causation for their inquiries.

Normative considerations in other fora’s relevant causal inquiries

In its infamous judgment in Hirsi Jamaa and Others v. Italy, the Grand Chamber of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) was confronted with an application concerning Italy’s involvement in the exposure of protection-seekers to the risk of arbitrary repatriation in Libya. The ECtHR took into consideration the scope and nature of the primary rule at issue (i.e. non-refoulement) and examined the foreseeable consequences of Italy’s removal of the applicants to Libya (para. 117). It held that Italy knew or should have known about the absence of asylum procedures in Libya and that, by returning protection-seekers thereto, Italy breached Article 3 of the ECHR because it exposed them to the risk of arbitrary repatriation (paras. 154–158). Similarly, in ZT v Australia, the Committee Against Torture highlighted that in instances of chain refoulement, the initially deporting State will bear responsibility if it transfers protection-seekers to an intermediate state, from where it is foreseeable that they may be deported to a third state that will subject them to the risk of torture (para. 6.4).

By relying on the causal test of foreseeability, the above fora have not only used the most appropriate causation test for cases involving overdetermination, but have also shown consideration of the importance of non-refoulement, as the primary rule that prohibits the harm inflicted upon the applicants. Adopting the causal test of directness for the assessment of whether the EU’s wrongful act contributed (alongside a Member-State’s conduct) to (the damage stemming from) a refoulement and to (the damage stemming from) a loss in the value of bonds, disregards that refoulement is a wrongful outcome that countless conventional, customary and even peremptory norms seek to prevent. Different wrongful outcomes that have different legal value require the Court’s engagement with a different test of causation. In other words, they require the Court to deviate from its standard practice of using the test of directness in all of its judgments, regardless of whether these judgments concern the EU’s involvement in a refoulement or its involvement in a loss in the value of bonds.

The need to choose different causation tests when normative considerations so require finds support in jurisprudence and in relevant scholarship. The ICJ has hinted to the need to choose the causation test that will be used depending on inter alia the harm suffered, holding that “the ‘causal nexus’ between the wrongful act and the damage in question is not static in nature, and may vary depending on the primary rule violated and the nature and extent of the injury” (Advisory Opinion on Climate Change, para. 436). Although this remark was made in the ICJ’s climate change Advisory Opinion, it reflects the ICJ’s solid view on how the causal inquiry shall be done in instances of overdetermination (see also: Armed Activities on the Territory of the Congo, para. 93). These points have also been raised in academics’ writings on the same issue (see: here, p. 59; here, pp. 60-62; here, p. 478, and here, pp. 80-81).

Concluding remarks

The CJEU’s judgment in W.S. and Others v Frontex brought to the forefront the Court’s problematic persistence to the use of the causal test of directness even in cases concerning overdetermined refoulement. Considering the CJEU’s important role as a forum where pushback survivors can seek the acknowledgment of Frontex’s wrongful involvement in their refoulement, and considering the relevant jurisprudence of other fora, which reveals a coherent consideration of normative factors during the selection of the test of causation that these fora employ in their causal inquiries, it is essential that the CJEU (and by extension also the General Court) follows a similar approach. As the blogpost highlighted, other fora that have taken into account such normative considerations in all parts of concerning overdetermined refoulement have been led to the test of foreseeability in their causal inquiries. By following this approach, the CJEU would not only align its jurisprudence with the relevant jurisprudence of other fora, but it would also contribute to a coherent jurisprudential oversight over the observance of non-refoulement in practice.

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