Beyond Constitutional Groundhog Day
In May 2026, Scottish voters once again returned the Scottish National Party (SNP) to power for the fifth successive Scottish Parliamentary election. The pro-independence SNP will bring up twenty years in government at Edinburgh next year, a remarkable achievement both for an administration that is so long in the tooth, and for one that has been rocked by major scandals in recent times. With the SNP promising another independence referendum but not having a legal mechanism to provide one, and polling on that issue still sat at about 50-50, the Scottish political Groundhog Day looks set to continue.
Beneath the stasis, however, there is movement in Scottish constitutional politics. This short post argues that there is more taking place than meets the eye, and that potentially significant changes are emerging under the twin continuities of SNP success and the never-ending independence question.
Changes in the Constitutional Parameters
The first changes are in the parameters of constitutional politics since the last Scottish election in 2021. The Scottish Parliament, established in 1999, is a devolved parliament within the broader British Constitution, which is premised on British parliamentary sovereignty. Since the establishment of the Scottish Parliament, there has been ambiguity over whether legislation to hold an independence referendum would be within its legal competences. The 2014 referendum took place through a Section 30 Order, following success of the SNP in the 2011 Scottish election and the agreement of the British Government. This effectively granted the Scottish Parliament the authority to legislate for the referendum temporarily, leaving the question of the Scottish Parliamentâs own powers open. Due to the 2022 UK Supreme Court ruling, it has now been clarified that holding an independence referendum is outwith the competences of the Scottish Parliament, and that any Scottish Parliamentary legislation to that effect without a Section 30 Order would be void. This was reflected in the 2026 manifesto of the SNP, who stated that a vote for the SNP is a vote for a referendum âon the 2011 precedentââ. The legal reality that the Scottish Parliament cannot unilaterally hold a vote and, in order for there to be any referendum, the British Government must be persuaded.
Other constitutional movements since the last election have exposed the fragility of devolution to Scotland. This has included UKSC rulings that took a broad reading on the limits of the Scottish Parliamentâs legislative competences in late 2021, and the ongoing effects of British Parliamentary legislation which cuts across devolved powers, producing a chilling effect on the ability of the Scottish Parliament to make different policy choices from London in practice. Around this, the Sewel Convention, which is meant to regulate the British Parliamentâs supremacy and afford protection to areas of devolved power, broke down during and beyond the Brexit years. Paradoxically, the fragility of devolution sits alongside the fact that the Scottish Parliamentâs powers are now broader than ever, as new powers have come online since 2021. However, the foundation of the settlement has been exposed as weak and unentrenched, and must sit alongside the ultimate, unrestricted sovereignty of the British Parliament. The SNP manifesto, unsurprisingly, reflected this by repeatedly highlighting the âstricturesâ of devolution.
Next, since the last election, there is a new British Government in power in London. The post-Brexit period was characterised by the deeply fractious relationship between Edinburgh and London, leading to many of the disputes that have resettled the constitution back towards British parliamentary sovereignty. The Labour Party replaced the Conservatives following 2024 UK General Election on a promise to âresetâ relations with devolved governments and to strengthen the Sewel Convention. In the years since, however, the picture on this has been somewhat mixed, and thaw in relations between the governments has not been particularly noticeable. Keir Starmer was also revealed to have said that he did not want to be ââoverly deferentialâ to devolved governments in a press leak earlier this year. Strikingly, the 2026 Scottish Labour election materials did not feature Starmer at all, and made little attempt to capitalise on their position as the party in power in London.
Pushed to the Extreme Options
A second point of transition at this election was the discourse on Scotlandâs constitutional position. The raison dâetre of the SNP is Scottish independence and that was unchanged, but discussion towards the future of Scottish devolution within the UK shifted. Going into the election, the rise of the anti-immigration Reform party was the headline issues. Reform are unionist and hostile towards devolution, with their manifesto promising to trim the number of Members of the Scottish Parliament and to review the parliamentâs powers every five years. This marks the return of anti-devolution sentiment to the Scottish political landscape. The Conservatives had opposed devolution prior to 1999, but began switching course as the Scottish Parliament was founded. Reformâs 17 seats in Holyrood, therefore, means that the small but persistent minority of Scots who are anti-devolution are firmly back in the conversation.
Beyond the return of devolution-scepticism, the issue of further devolution to Scotland receded at this election. For example, Scottish Labour promised borrowing powers and employment rights in 2021. In 2026, this is not mentioned, and their manifesto was instead about making existing powers âworkââ as opposed to seeking any new powers. This is actually the position that the Conservates have transition to since 1999, and, as the pro-federal Scottish Liberal Democrats also made no commitments to further devolution, meant that new powers are now entirely off the agenda from the mainstream unionist parties. This focus on domestic issues over constitutional ones was likely an attempt to capitalise on the SNP Governmentâs various scandals over recent times. Only promoting the status quo is still striking, however, and means that the only proposals for changes to the Scottish Parliamentâs powers came from the parties at the extreme positions: reduced devolution, or full independence. Compounding this, the only parties to make a tangible reference to devolving more powers within the UK were the SNP, who called for the still un-devolved area of employment law to come under Edinburghâs control, and the Scottish Green Party, who are also pro-independence.
Local Devolution and a Regional Breakthrough
The third major shift in this election was the new focus on Scotlandâs internal power structures. While the mainstream unionist parties were silent on further devolution to Scotland, there was a notable attention paid to devolution within Scotland in their manifestos. Scottish Labour, for example, promised to âpush power out of Holyroodâ. This is actually a view shared with Reform, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Greens, who similarly railed against the centralisation of powers in Edinburgh. The SNP were most muted on the issue, making more general commitments towards community empowerment rather than the clear devolution of power within Scotland.
One result from the election stands out and suggests that the appetite for decentralisation does exist. Hannah Mary Goodlad convincingly won the Shetland constituency to become the islandsâ first SNP representative. While she ran an outstanding local campaign, the result is still striking in the context of Shetland history and identity. The far-north archipelago has been continuously represented by the Liberal Democrats in the Scottish Parliament since 1999 (and since 1950 in the British Parliament). Moreover, Shetland has its own autonomy question and a traditional discomfort with Scottish identity. Goodlad is herself the daughter of the former candidate of the Orkney and Shetland Movement, who ran in 1987 UK General Election on a platform of Shetland autonomy.
Crucially, Goodlad published her own local manifesto, which included commitments for increased local power along with proposals such as recognising the local dialect, Shaetlan, as an official language at the next census, and noted that âShetland is different to the rest of Scotland, geographically, culturally, heritage, everythingâ. Here, the SNP was able to break new ground in the most hostile of areas, but had to be accommodating of diverse identity and subsidiarity against their centralising instinct. In addition, Goodladâs local manifesto sidestepped the issue of independence entirely.
Conclusion
In the immediate aftermath of the election, the reconvened Scottish Parliament passed a motion to seek a Section 30 Order. On the back of this, returned First Minister John Swinney pledged to meet with Keir Starmer to discuss the issue of a second referendum. In the weeks since, however, a war of words broke out over whether this will actually be discussed at the meeting, with UK Government sources reaffirming their opposition to a second referendum. Former Prime Minister Theresa Mayâs 2017 response of ânow is not the timeâ seems set to continue as the UK Governmentâs approach towards the entire issue of Scottish independence.
The argument made in this post is not that 2026 is a transformational period for the Scottish constitution. Rather, the argument is that subtle alterations are taking place, which may have long-term bearings for the conversation on Scotlandâs constitutional future. With Starmer on the way out, his successor has placed devolution at the centre of his pitch for power. However, it is a model of devolution that is centred on regions and not nations, downplaying the role of the Scottish Government and Parliament. A second Scottish independence referendum has also been decisively ruled out. How this tangles with a returned SNP administration, and the strands of Scottish constitutional politics identified in this post, remains to be seen.
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